More than 39 million Americans have cast early ballots ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, with surging participation among Hispanic voters and shifting party dynamics in key battleground states nationwide.
Early Voting Surges Past Midterm Pacing Nationwide
With just six days remaining until the midterm elections, early voter turnout is outpacing levels seen at this same point in the 2022 midterm cycle. According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab tracker and the Associated Press, over 39 million Americans had cast ballots by Wednesday afternoon. Political scientist Michael McDonald, who runs the Election Lab, notes that the current trajectory is running at least even to the high-water benchmark of 2018.
Texas is experiencing some of the most dramatic increases in the nation. As of Wednesday morning, 5.6 million Texans had cast early ballots—numbers that mirror a presidential election year rather than a midterm cycle. State records show that at this point four years ago, roughly 4.2 million voters had participated early in the state.
Nearly 4.5 million Texans voted during the first seven days of early voting alone, amounting to 23.4% of registered voters. Compared to the corresponding timeframe in 2022, turnout is running higher under this trajectory, though it stays lower than the 2018 midterm figures when Democrat Beto O’Rourke mounted a close challenge to Republican Senator Ted Cruz. In Georgia, more than 2.1 million voters had cast early ballots by Wednesday morning, where competitive Senate and governor’s races are also being closely watched.
Nationwide tracking across the twenty-seven states that record party affiliation shows that of roughly 16 million early voters in those jurisdictions, 45% are Democrats, about 31% are Republicans, and 24% are unaffiliated. Overall, across early voting data tracked by the University of Florida, Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans.
Hispanic and Latino Voter Turnout Climbs Sharply Across States
Early voting data compiled by TargetSmart indicates that Hispanic and Latino participation is significantly eclipsing 2022 levels. Nationally, 3.8 million Hispanic and Latino voters had cast ballots by Tuesday, compared to 2.35 million at the same juncture in the previous midterm election.
According to Democratic strategist and TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, 94 percent of U.S. counties now show Latino and Hispanic individuals making up a greater portion of the voting population than they did four years ago. Growth has been especially steep in several states:
- Texas has seen a 37 percent increase in the share of early Hispanic votes cast.
- California has seen a 44 percent increase.
- New York a 71 percent increase.
- Virginia an 86 percent increase.
- Maryland an 184 percent increase.
- Minnesota there has been a 213 percent increase in early votes cast among Hispanic voters.
Bonier cautions, however, that early voting data only tracks participation rather than candidate preference.
Partisan Splits and Voting Method Shifts in Florida and North Carolina
North Carolina has recorded more than 400,000 additional early votes compared with the same point in 2022, bringing the total to nearly 1.6 million early votes. While mail voting has declined, voters have heavily shifted to early in-person voting.
The big story here is the lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side.
Steve Harrison, WFAE
Registered Republicans accounted for 31% of the voting pool in North Carolina at this stage, matching their share from the 2018 midterms.
Expert Assessments on Enthusiasm and Party Strategies
Charles Stewart, a political science professor at MIT and founding director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, observes that the broader surge reflects voter excitement and notes that political science research suggests voters casting ballots early would otherwise have voted on Election Day had that mode not been available. Stewart also points out that Democratic mail voting is sagging somewhat while turning into higher in-person early voting, resulting in a smaller gap between Democrats and Republicans by mail than was seen in 2022.
Republicans continue to emphasize that traditional voting patterns typically see their supporters cast ballots closer to or on Election Day. Mark Jones noted that while Democrats are energized by high early turnout, Republicans are relying on their remaining base voters to close the gap during the final week of early voting and on November 3.
