Russia continued to present itself as the victim of a Western destabilization maneuver on Saturday February 12. As she unleashed military maneuvers on a scale unprecedented since the end of the Cold War, both on land, at sea and in the air, she says the United States and its allies have adopted a offensive posture that would force him to defend himself.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov thus accused the United States of wanting to provoke a conflict in Ukraine, during a telephone conversation on Saturday with his American counterpart Antony Blinken, according to a press release from his ministry.
Intense diplomatic exchanges
The “stressed that the propaganda campaign launched by the United States and its allies on ‘Russian aggression’ against Ukraine is aimed at provocation, encouraging the authorities in Kiev” to embark on a “military resolution of the Donbass problem”. With a consummate art of paradox, Russian diplomacy therefore explains that the strong concerns expressed in recent days by Washington and other Western capitals about a Russian invasion are a hostile act!
Anthony Blinken has on his side “clearly indicated that a diplomatic path to resolving the crisis remained open, but would require de-escalation from Moscow and discussions in good faith”, State Department spokesman Ned Price said. An invasion of Ukraine, which Russia is accused of preparing, “would bring about a resolute, massive and united transatlantic response”he added.
In a day marked by intense diplomatic exchanges, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by telephone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, five days after their long meeting in Moscow on Monday February 7. The challenge, according to the Elysée, was to verify that the Russian president kept options for dialogue and negotiation open.
« We have no clue that he will go on the offensive “, says one in the entourage of the head of state. A position that contrasts with much more alarmist remarks from Washington.
The conversation showed that Vladimir Putin was sticking to a victim rhetoric. He explains that it was not he who took the initiative for the escalation, but the Westerners, by weaving closer and closer relations with Ukraine.
Its objective is to obtain a military and diplomatic neutralization of this country. But Westerners refuse to do so. According to his entourage, Emmanuel Macron repeated to his Russian counterpart that the Ukrainians must be able to decide sovereignly on their alliances and defend the integrity of their territory.
→ Analysis: Emmanuel Macron as mediator on the Moscow-Kiev diagonal
The Elysée believes that Vladimir Putin has not yet made a decision on a possible invasion of Ukraine. To weigh in the direction of a de-escalation, Emmanuel Macron would seek to combine firmness, deterrence and dialogue, in close consultation with France’s European partners and with transatlantic allies.
France and Germany in particular remain engaged in very difficult discussions with Russia and Ukraine on the settlement of the Donbass conflict, triggered in 2014 by separatists in eastern Ukraine. A nine-hour negotiating session took place midweek in Berlin at the level of the presidents’ diplomatic advisers. On the French side, it is explained that Russia has set a new condition, which has blocked any progress, but that it had agreed to resume discussions in a fortnight. A weak signal that the way to trading remains open.
France has, however, decided to advise its nationals to postpone non-essential or urgent travel to Ukraine. Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have done the same. Berlin has recommended to those of its nationals whose presence is not “imperative” to leave ” short term “ Ukraine, where a “military conflict cannot be ruled out”. The United States, Canada and Australia had already called on their nationals to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.
In the evening, US President Joe Biden was to speak on the phone with Vladimir Putin. A few hours earlier, the Pentagon had decided to withdraw from Ukraine 160 soldiers who were training the Ukrainian forces, for the “reposition elsewhere in Europe”.
→ Ukraine debate, is the United States throwing oil on the fire?
The diplomatic ballet at a very high level should continue in the coming days. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will make a long-awaited visit to Kiev and then to Moscow on Tuesday 15 February.
Meanwhile, more than 100,000 Russian military personnel with heavy weapons are deployed along the border with Ukraine. More than 30,000 Russian soldiers are simultaneously conducting large-scale military exercises in Belarus, near Ukraine and Poland. The Russian Navy, for its part, is continuing major naval exercises in the Black Sea, and in particular in the Sea of Azov, paralyzing the activity of the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. So many maneuvers that could lead to an invasion of Ukraine on three different flanks, if the order were given by the Kremlin.
→ Chronicle Europe to quit or double on Ukraine