Suddenly I remembered Liu Guo’s poem “Climb to the Top of the White Clouds” in the Song Dynasty: “If you want to be rich in three thousand worlds, you must climb up to eight hundred peaks.” It means that those who want to be rich in sight must “reach a higher level.” Otherwise ambition is just empty talk. In the same way, if you want to reach the peak, you must look at the timing and path, rather than blindly rushing into battle, as Yu Wanchun in the Qing Dynasty said in Chapter 76 of “Dang Kou Zhi”: “When you go here, you must hide your strength and bide your time, and then look at the weather.” Therefore. There is today’s title.
(1) U.S. power willful, politics outweigh military
──There are indications that even if Chinese balloons enter U.S. airspace and may indeed detect certain materials, the U.S. will not be harmed by this. Generally speaking, military facilities have radio interference functions to prevent leaks, and high-altitude detection is mostly astronomical and geographical data that can be used for long-term research and use, as well as harmless civilian radio waves. As for how to discover military data in civilian radio waves, more sophisticated and high-end technology is required. Therefore, the United States also admits that this Chinese balloon has no impact on the national security of the United States.
However, the United States makes a big fuss and exaggerates. Its strategy is to use this matter to trigger international political fermentation and create greater pressure on China. It is worth noting that the U.S. official also said that “it is not the first time that a Chinese spy balloon has entered U.S. airspace”; Hua (US version) announced on the eve of it? I am explaining that the political motives of the United States are far greater than military considerations, and it wants to strengthen its offensive against China from international diplomacy and public opinion warfare; when it creates a greater dilemma for China, it can gain an advantage in negotiations.
──The United States monitors the movement of Chinese balloons in real time, and accurately calculates the time and place of shooting down with missiles. It will not harm the Americans on the ground. It can also let the balloon fragments fall into shallow waters for easy salvage. Analyze China’s technology and military level. This is the US Biden administration’s strategy of “killing many birds with one stone”. It uses practical actions to demonstrate its strength and love for the people. This is the treachery of politics, and it is also the dexterity of political solipsism.
──From the perspective of international struggle and bullying, the behavior of the United States is willful and reckless, but this is a law of international politics (again, it is not a law), and it is also the mentality of the United States to dominate the world. Let us also look at the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999, the US reconnaissance plane activities in the South China Sea in 2001 and the collision incident between China and the US, reflecting the US power and “willful” mentality. The U.S. also assessed back then that the incident would not harm the overall situation of Sino-U.S. relations. This “balloon incident” also reflects the mentality of the United States, but there is one more thing, that is, under the changing times, the United States is provoking intentionally or unintentionally, aiming to stimulate China’s non-strategic reactions and actions, thus triggering further internal friction , in terms of international strategy, it accelerates political and image murder. Faced with such a situation, China must respond calmly and carefully.
(2) China does not lose reason but loses the situation
──China’s accusation that the United States has overreacted and violated international practice can be established. Taking this “balloon incident” as an example, China can understand it as: International mutual reconnaissance and spying are commonplace and normal, a piece of cake and a trivial matter; does the United States not have artificial satellites and spy balloons to spy on China’s intelligence? It is an open secret that the United States even spy on the intelligence of its allies on a regular basis. However, when dealing with such intelligence work between countries, most of them focus on defense rather than destroying each other’s facilities (serious cases can be understood as declaring war, such as illegally occupying other countries’ embassies in their own countries). This kind of diplomatic culture is a bit like the previous “two countries confront each other, don’t kill each other”, but this time the United States shot down the Chinese balloon, so it violated international conventions.
However, the so-called “international practice” is a consensus when it is useful, and it is a silent fart when it is useless. As for China’s emphasis that the balloon is for “civilian and scientific research” and that “entry into U.S. airspace is a cause of force majeure” (the U.S. says the balloon is still operable), this is no longer the core issue. If you believe it, you will believe it, if you don’t believe it, you will continue to disbelieve it, because these are just the contents of the propaganda war.
──This matter reflects a paradox, that is, the United States makes a fuss out of a molehill, and even lies, and the world believes it; but the world does not believe China’s lies. This kind of distrust continues to accumulate, resulting in more serious consequences. Sometimes when China tells the truth (such as positive national conditions), the outside world does not believe it; what’s more, even its own people (including the general public and people in the system) I don’t believe it. Positive content is regarded as water-filled propaganda and boasting, while negative content is regarded as concealment and shirking of responsibility (such as the death toll of epidemics and vicious incidents). This is not a smearing description, but I hope that the government will not continue to believe in power, thinking that mastering the propaganda machine can unite the hearts of the people. Knowing this, we can be of one heart and one mind.
(3) Keeping a low profile is still a timely strategy
──It is undeniable that the pressure from Western powers exists all the time, but how to respond and coexist is the key. Deng Xiaoping put forward a “three-step” plan in response to the actual situation and the speed of development (the first step is to solve the problem of food and clothing by 1990; the second step is to achieve a moderately prosperous life by the end of the 20th century; the third step is to achieve a moderate developed countries), in other words, he calculates that China will emerge and dominate the world around 2050 or earlier. He also put forward the 24-character policy of “observing calmly, maintaining a stable position, responding calmly, keeping a low profile, keeping a low profile, and never taking the lead.” Afterwards, Jiang Zemin’s “making a fortune in silence” and Hu Jintao’s “all-round diplomacy” were the same. Right now, these are worth pondering.
–About 10 years ago, these claims were contested. One view is that China has reached the time to “make a difference”, and the United States no longer believes in hiding its strength and biding its time, seeing that China’s national strength is getting stronger, so China might as well take the initiative and stand out early. There is no final decision on which of the two strategies is better, and the only answer is to let the development of things. Today, perhaps a review should be done, and corrections should be made in a timely manner if necessary. In fact, the mainland has recently re-emerged discussions from 10 years ago, pointing out that the ability to advance and retreat is wisdom, not fear; being good at keeping one’s nerves, reserving energy, and not rushing for quick success is a strategy, not cowardice.
──Looking at recent Sino-foreign relations, there are some signs of a “diplomatic Xiaoyangchun”, such as Sino-Australian relations, relations between China and Middle Eastern countries, and even relations between China and the United States and China and Europe. Therefore, it is better to take this opportunity to think more from the perspective of strength and strategy, borrow each other’s strengths, and advance and retreat in a certain way. Only in this way can we “want to enrich the three thousand realms of the earth” and make the most of the opportunity of “keeping a low profile and watching the time”.
The author is a current affairs commentator
(Criticisms on current affairs articles published on this website are aimed at pointing out errors or shortcomings in relevant systems, policies or measures, with the aim of urging the correction or elimination of these errors or shortcomings, and improving them through legal means. There is absolutely no intention to incite others to criticize the government or hatred, resentment or hostility from other communities)