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Lebanon and Israel reached an agreement to demarcate their maritime borders, after two years of US mediation. The two countries described this agreement as “historic”, because it would allow the two countries to explore for gas and oil in the disputed area of their territorial waters. What information is available about this agreement, whose final version was formulated by the American mediator, Amos Hochstein? What are its provisions and the most prominent concerns surrounding it?
exceeded Lebanon and Israel Their previous differences and the faltering of indirect negotiations that began in 2020, finally signed a historic agreement delineating their maritime borders, after mediation led by the United States of America.
What are the terms of the agreement?
In the year 2020, indirect negotiations began between Lebanon and Israel, and they were not easy at all. It stumbled several times before developments in the file accelerated in early June. After meetings and shuttle contacts between the two parties, the American mediator presented Amos Hookstein At the beginning of the week, he presented his last presentation to the two sides, who respectively announced their agreement to it.
According to the agreement, a copy of which was seen by Agence France-Presse, the two parties should commit themselves that “this agreement (…) establishes a permanent and equitable solution to the maritime dispute between them.”
The agreement will enter into force when the United States sends “a notification containing confirmation of each party’s agreement to the provisions of the agreement.”
Each party should also submit a letter containing a list of geographical coordinates related to the demarcation of the maritime line to the United Nations, to replace those sent by the two countries in 2011. Accordingly, neither of them has the right in the future to send any memorandum, not agreed upon by the two sides, that includes maps or Coordinates contrary to agreement.
Under the new agreement, the Karish field will be completely on the Israeli side, while the agreement will guarantee Lebanon the entire Qana field, which goes beyond the demarcation line separating the two parties.
For its part, Block No. 9, where the Qana field is located, will constitute a major area for exploration by the French Total and Italy’s Eni, which in 2018 obtained contracts for oil and gas exploration with a Russian company, before the latter withdrew this year.
Israel will receive “compensation from the operator of Block 9”, since part of the Qana field is located outside Lebanese territorial waters, in reference to the companies Total and Eni, “in return for the rights belonging to it from any potential stocks in the potential reservoir.”
While some in Israel oppose the agreement, including the “Kohulit” Policy Forum, which filed a complaint before the judiciary, calling for a referendum on it.
What are the main concerns?
Israel’s share will be determined through separate talks with the operator of the Qana field.
According to the agreement, “Israel and the operator of Block 9 will conclude a financial agreement before the operator of Block 9 (make) the final investment decision.”
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said last Wednesday that “Israel will receive about 17 percent of the revenues from the Qana field when it enters the production stage.”
According to the text of the agreement, Israel must “work in good faith” with the operator of Block 9 to ensure that the agreement is settled “in a timely manner.”
Israel has no right to object to any activities or take any measures that would, according to the text of the agreement, “delay the implementation of activities” in the potential reservoir.
Despite this, the expert in the field of energy, Suhail Shatila, believes that the financial agreement that Israel and the operating company will conclude is a “dangerous” precondition.
Shatila told AFP, “Israel has the right to stop any development in Qana by asking it to finish drafting the financial agreement with Total first.” He added, “This means that if they do not want Lebanon to extract any gas, they have a window in the border agreement” to achieve this.
According to financial expert Mike Azar, this agreement did not solve the main economic issues related to the sharing of profits from potential resources, but he postponed deciding on them to a later date.
In his statement to the French news agency, he added, “Lebanon’s ability to explore and develop the prospects of the Qana field ultimately depends on Israeli approvals and on the future financial arrangement between Total and Israel.”
Accordingly, the deal, according to Azar, “is more profitable for Israel in the short term, as it can start producing gas from the Karish field imminently, without any problems from the Lebanese side.”
What is the likely scenario?
In a seismic survey conducted by the British company Spectrum for an offshore limited area in 2012, the recoverable gas reserves in Lebanon were estimated at 25.4 trillion cubic feet.
The Lebanese authorities had also announced higher estimates, but so far, there is no evidence of resources in the Qana field.
For information, the agreement is a green light for France’s Total and Italy’s Eni to start exploration.
According to the non-governmental Lebanese Oil and Gas Initiative, the “expected scenario in the best case” is the discovery of a quantity of 16 trillion cubic feet.
For her part, Diana Qaisi, a member of the initiative’s advisory team, explained that Lebanon’s profits in this case “may reach six billion dollars, distributed over 15 years.”
Despite the profits that Lebanon may achieve, they only cover a small part of the debts it has accumulated, as it remains mired in an economic collapse that the World Bank has ranked among the worst in the world since 1850.
France 24/AFP