Asharq Al-Awsat: The quorum for the election session for the Lebanese president is secured… and difficult choices for opening the door for candidacy

The willingness of the Lebanese parliamentary blocs to attend the session scheduled this afternoon to elect a President of the Republic does not mean that the road is politically clear to cross the presidential election to safety, as it is included in the test of intentions, because the local and external conditions are not ripe until now, and this explains the prevailing state of confusion on the positions of the blocs, whether those belonging to the opposing majorities or those that revolve in the orbit of the opposition axis; Especially as she was surprised by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s call to elect a president of the republic, and she did not expect him to be selected for the session two days before the end of the first month constitutionally set for his election within two months at most or at least a month after the end of the current president’s term of office.

Speaker Berri’s call coincided with the initiative of the parliamentary blocs to coordinate among themselves to discuss more than one scenario to deal with his call, but on the basis of the necessity of their participation in the session by securing a quorum for the session to be convened by a two-thirds majority of parliament members, without meaning that the quorum will be secured to elect the president unless the competing blocs agree To limit the race to the presidency to two candidates, and this is still difficult to achieve, unless the last-minute consultations carried an uncalculated surprise that prevented the session from being limited to securing a quorum for its convening, and extended towards a confrontation that would not allow any party to resolve the battle for the benefit of its candidate.

Therefore, by inviting Berri to the election session, he preserves the right to send one invitation after another to elect the president on the one hand, and at the same time passes a message abroad that he will not give in to the bets that are intended to carry over the achievement of the presidential elections until after the end of Aoun’s term, which will lead the country into a vacancy. presidential.

Berri’s invitation was satisfied with the Arab and foreign ambassadors accredited to Lebanon, and this was also expressed by the US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, when she told him when she met him yesterday, that it is a pleasant surprise, as it meets the insistence of the international community to complete the presidential elections on time. On the eve of the session Today, it seems that uncertainty is controlling the general course of the position of the parliamentary blocs, which were forced to hastily rearrange their ranks, starting with unifying their position, and this applies to the majorities in the opposition and the parliamentary blocs competing with them in light of their ability to unify their position.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Berri’s call dictated the opposition’s majorities to move immediately in parallel with the high level of coordination between the blocs affiliated with the loyalist axis, while Hezbollah communicated with the leadership of the Free Patriotic Movement in the context of an exchange of views.

According to the information, a meeting was held yesterday at the Kataeb Central House, which included its head Sami Gemayel and Elias Hankash, the “Forces of Change” bloc, Waddah Al-Sadek, Mark Daou, Yassin Yassin, Rami Feng, and the “Renewal” bloc, Michel Moawad and Ashraf Rifi. And about the independent Ghassan Skaf. The attendees continued with the deputy head of the “Lebanese Forces” party, George Adwan, and MPs Fouad Makhzoumi, Salim Al-Sayegh, Neamat Afram, and Adib Abdel Masih, because they are outside Lebanon.

More than one scenario was proposed in the meeting, after the attendees ruled out a proposal made by Gemayel to be absent from the session, and the deputies saw it as an embarrassment to them at the local and external levels in light of the international community’s insistence on electing the president on time and the attendees’ support for the completion of the presidential elections before the end of Aoun’s presidential term .

Then the meeting raised the necessity of attending the session to secure its convening, provided that they would discuss with the other forces in the opposition in the next step in the event it was decided to open the door to electing the president. The “forces of change” tend to adopt the candidacy of former MP Salah Hanin, who won the Maronite seat in the Baabda constituency in alliance with the “Progressive Socialist Party”.

The meeting ended in the hope of communicating later with the allied blocs, specifically the “Forces” and “Democratic Gathering”, which held a meeting last night, in the presence of “Progressive” President Walid Jumblatt, who cut short his private visit to Paris and returned with MP Wael Abu Faour, who is communicating with a deputy. Forces » Melhem Riachy.

On the other hand, a meeting was held yesterday afternoon in the context of consultations to elicit opinions on unifying the position in today’s session. Representatives Ghassan Skaf, Nabil Badr, Imad Al-Hout (Islamic Group), Jamil Abboud, a member of the Avram bloc, Abdel Rahman Al-Bizri, Bilal Hashimi, Walid Al-Baarini, on behalf of the “Parliamentary Etidal” bloc.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Al-Baarini, who attended part of the meeting, told his colleagues that the MPs, members of the Moderation Bloc, Muhammad Suleiman, Saji` Attia, Ahmed Rostom, Abdul Aziz Al-Samad, Ahmed Al-Khair, Karim Kabbara, tend to vote with a blank sheet of paper if the competition is limited to a leader. The Marada,” Suleiman Franjieh and MP Michel Moawad, under the pretext of disassociating themselves from engaging themselves in a battle in the town of Zgharta in the northern region.

But the surprise in the meeting was the decision of MPs Al-Hout and Badr to vote also with a white paper, and this constitutes a weighty parliamentary bloc that calls for neutrality between Franjieh and Moawad, while Al-Bizri informed the audience that he and his colleagues Osama Saad and Charbel Massad will make their unified decision in conjunction with their attendance at the session.

On the other side, Berri’s invitation constituted an embarrassment to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, because he would be forced to reveal his decision in the session, and whether he would support Franjieh or if he had another candidate, although he was hesitant that his candidate would vote with a blank sheet of paper if he did not change his position. In response to the request of Hezbollah, which prefers not to reveal its papers except at the appropriate time, even though it does not show a willingness to engage in efforts to agree on a president, because it looks forward to electing someone who is comfortable with it and who provides him with guarantees.

The question remains; Does Hezbollah deal with the election of the president from a purely local angle, or does it link its decision to the region, specifically to its ally Iran, which is seeking to keep its cards to improve its conditions and not release the presidential election without a price? The government, while it is still betting on overcoming the obstacles that prevent it from being floated, is behaving as if it will see the light no matter how long it takes.

Today’s session will be open to several scenarios, including securing its holding without entering the election of the president in the event that it is not possible to secure a two-thirds majority for the withdrawal of the required number of deputies to break the quorum. Noting that the name of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, was not among the candidates whose names were discussed yesterday because his candidacy needs a constitutional amendment.

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