As college football hurtles toward a widely expected 24-team playoff format, major structural cracks are beginning to show in the foundation of the sport. While athletic administrators push relentlessly for expansion, Dan Wetzel predicts that the sweeping changes will backfire on the power conferences that orchestrated them, potentially pushing mega-brands like Ohio State and Michigan to break away entirely from the Big Ten.
The push for a larger postseason field has been driven primarily by the Big Ten and the SEC, who sought greater access and revenue for their membership. Yet Wetzel argues that athletic leadership has routinely failed to anticipate downstream consequences. In a post on the social media platform X, he wrote that a 24-team tournament will ultimately destabilize the regular season and make conference affiliation obsolete for the sport’s most valuable programs.
The core beneficiary of this shifting landscape, according to the analysis, is Notre Dame. Remaining independent allows the program to maintain complete scheduling freedom, maximize its media value, and secure an almost 100 percent guarantee to make the playoff.
Why Independence Could Lure Ohio State and Michigan Away
That independent blueprint is precisely what top-tier programs should examine next, Wetzel contends. Pointing to the current state of the Big Ten, he questioned the value of remaining tethered to an 18-team conference.
College athletics is terrible at seeing problems around the corner. The 24-team playoff is the latest example. A lot of schools that supported this will regret it because in the end it won't be about the playoff or even the now diminished regular season.Notre Dame now has the…
“To use the Big Ten as an example, why wouldn’t Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State follow? If you can, be independent. That’s the future,” Wetzel wrote on X. “The 18-team Big Ten is bloated, distant, and winning it carries little intrinsic or competitive value for the biggest brands.”
By stepping outside the conference structure, elite programs could theoretically forge independent scheduling alliances. Wetzel suggested that such a move could increase their media revenue 2-3x, with no sharing money and no forced TV times.
The Threat to Smaller Programs in an Expanded Postseason
While a mass exodus of elite brands would deal a severe blow to the conference system, the fallout for smaller programs could be even more damaging. Many smaller institutions initially backed playoff expansion under the assumption that a larger bracket would offer a shot at what he called the “participation playoff” with an 8-4 record.
However, Wetzel warns that these smaller programs face significant risk in the future. Once major programs realize there is little incentive to stay in a conference, they will likely stop sharing their massive financial windfalls with lower-revenue partners.
“There will come a day when they will not get a share of the Ohio State-Michigan windfall; only Ohio State and Michigan will,” Wetzel wrote, adding that while the fracture may not happen tomorrow, a 24-team playoff makes it closer than ever.
