Whispers circulating through overseas Chinese-language circles ahead of the Fifth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee claim that Premier Li Qiang has been designated as Xi Jinping’s successor and will replace him as party general secretary. Ahead of the previous Fourth Plenum, similar rumors pointed to Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi. foreignpolicy.com reported that neither claim holds credibility.
Those persistent speculations highlight the reliance Xi places on his two most powerful lieutenants to maintain control. Outside observers frequently view Zhongnanhai through the lens of impending palace coups, underestimating the daily administrative machinery required to run the state and the party. Xi oversees a vast system that demands capable aides, establishing an unequal triangle of power involving himself, Li, and Cai.
Li and Cai Lack Independent Political Capital
This structure draws loose comparisons to past eras. During the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976, Premier Zhou Enlai advised military commanders to navigate “central politics”—the relationship among Mao Zedong, Lin Biao, and Jiang Qing. Lin died in 1971 under mysterious circumstances, while Jiang and the Gang of Four fell in 1976 after Mao’s death.
Unlike Lin, who commanded wartime prestige and military connections, or Jiang, who used her status as Mao's wife, Li and Cai owe their rises entirely to Xi's trust. Neither possesses independent political capital outside Xi’s authority, aligning their interests much more closely with the supreme leader.
Dividing Responsibilities Within the Leadership
Since the 20th Party Congress in 2022, responsibilities have been strictly partitioned. Li serves as premier and ranks second in the party hierarchy, running the State Council and its vast administrative apparatus. Cai ranks fifth, serving as the highest-ranking secretary of the Secretariat, heading the General Office of the CCP Central Committee, and taking charge of the Central Party School.
While Cai enjoys constant proximity to Xi, the party apparatus does not fall under his absolute monopoly. Critical pillars including discipline inspection, anti-corruption, personnel, ideology, and security are managed by other loyalists reporting directly to Xi.
The 2027 Party Congress Test
The structural arrangement faces a major personnel test at the 21st Party Congress. By October 2027, both Li and Cai will exceed the informal retirement age threshold of 68. Li will be three months past the limit, while Cai will be nearly four years over it. Retaining both on the Standing Committee remains unlikely as Xi makes room for younger loyalists.
