Donald Trump 2.0: US foreign policy scenarios if the Republican returns to the presidency | USA Elections

In 1997, a man who had been everything in foreign policy, the former national security advisor of the United States Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in retirement a classic of geopolitics, The Grand Chessboard (“The Great Board”). In it he argued that, to remain a world leader, the United States only had to do three things: strengthen its ties with Europe through NATO; preserve its military bases in Asia to contain China, and prevent any “assertive entity” like Beijing or Moscow from gaining influence in the key regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.

The presidential elections on November 5 in the United States, which will once again confront President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump, appear at first glance to be a drastic dilemma: the Democrat offers to follow Brzezinski’s recipe to the letter. The Republican promises to blow it up.

The two candidates could not be more different in foreign policy. Two images illustrated this this week: on Thursday, Biden greeted the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, hours after this country joined the Atlantic Alliance in a ceremony in Washington. On Friday, Trump received the Prime Minister of Hungary, the far-right Viktor Orbán, at his Mar-a-Lago mansion, whose government took a year to say yes to Stockholm’s entry into NATO.

Biden, who boasts international experience and decades of relationships with other leaders, boasts of commitment to NATO, has strengthened or created new alliances in Asia and insists on sending more military aid to Ukraine. Despite his support for Israel in the Gaza war, he defends the two-state solution, the Palestinian and the Israeli.

Trump is not particularly interested in international politics, but during his term he turned it upside down. He reneged on international agreements on climate change, troop deployment, trade and nuclear weapons. He approached autocrats such as the Russian Vladimir Putin or the North Korean Kim Jong-un — “We have fallen in love,” he once said of the latter — while attacking leaders of allied countries such as Germany or the United Kingdom. He also imposed an entry ban on citizens of Arab countries; he threatened to withdraw US bases from South Korea; and he described Haiti and El Salvador as “shitholes.”

Although the magnate has not lavished foreign policy comments on the campaign, when he has done so he has caused shock after shock. Three weeks ago, he threatened that, if he returned to the White House, he would end NATO’s raison d’être – the principle of mutual defense – and allow the same Russia that has invaded Ukraine “to do whatever the hell it wants.” ” with members that do not invest at least 2% of their GDP in Defense. He also hinted that he would convert foreign aid into mere loans. Previously, he had assured that he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.”

These are details that have raised alarm bells among Washington’s European and Asian partners over the possibility of Trump returning to the White House. Although the eight months until the elections are a long time in politics and everything can change; Recent polls give the Republican an advantage. That prospect, which worries allies, on the other hand, fills other governments, from Israel to Moscow, with joy.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House would represent a 180-degree change with respect to the multilateralism that Biden defends, says Grant Davis Reeher, director of the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. “[Habría] An emphasis on bilateral rather than multilateral relations, and a general reduction in American involvement in international affairs,” the expert explains by email. Among other things, Trump has already assured that he would once again withdraw the US from the Paris treaties against climate change.

“If his first four years were bad, another four would be even worse,” says John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser and now one of his biggest critics, in the new prologue to his memoir. The Room Where It Happened (The room where it happened).

According to Bolton, Trump would surround himself with a team characterized less by its preparation than by its absolute obedience to the president. By not being able to run for a third term, the magnate would not be constrained by the need to please voters and could inflict irreparable damage on the United States and its allies, alleges this conservative hawk.

“There would be a very close competition between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as to who would be most pleased to see Trump back in office,” Bolton ironically says.

The world under Trump 2.0, as deduced from his statements, the analysis of experts and the comments of those who know him, could turn out something like this:

Europe and the Ukrainian war

“We could see a withdrawal of support for Ukraine, although it is also possible that, once Trump returned to the White House, he would see this problem differently,” says Reeher. The former president has stated about the conflict: “The best thing the United States should be doing is making peace, bringing Russia and Ukraine together and making peace.”

In this academic’s opinion, Trump’s re-election “would do nothing but damage relations with our European allies.” “While it is true that European nations were not contributing to NATO at the level they were supposed to, the damage that comes with the former president’s stance is quite real,” notes Reeher. It is difficult, he believes, to imagine that the magnate “could seriously consider leaving NATO, or failing to fulfill his commitment to defend the countries of the Alliance—whether or not they have “paid” their part. But he has made comments to those two effects, so you have to take it seriously.”

In a second term, he may have launched a trade war with European automakers. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports and has raised the possibility of raising them even higher on Chinese products, on which he already imposed heavy tax burdens during his term.

Asia and the Chinese giant

If re-elected, Trump would probably adopt an even more aggressive position towards China in the trade section: he has even mentioned tariffs of over 60%, something that would precipitate a new downturn in relations, already weakened, between the two. colossi

The big unknown is what would be its position towards Taiwan. In the past, he has made statements that show him unwilling to defend the island—Bolton recounts a moment in the Oval Office in which Trump compared the island to his fountain pen, and China to his desk. A hypothetical invasion by China would trigger a “significant international crisis,” believes Reeher, and both a Democratic and Republican Administration “would do everything possible to avoid it.” “Trump has made it clear that he does not love Chinese leadership, unlike the gestures he has made toward Putin,” this analyst continues.

The former US president could renew pressure on South Korea and, as he did in his first term, threaten to withdraw troops protecting it unless Seoul bears a greater proportion of the costs. And it remains to be seen whether he would renew his failed nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

Middle East and Gaza

Trump has not made any major statements regarding the war in Gaza. But during his tenure he ordered the transfer of the American Embassy to Jerusalem and maintained a permissive policy toward extremist Jewish settlers. The Israeli Minister of National Security, the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir, has recently declared that Biden does not “completely” support Israel. “If Trump were in charge, the behavior of the United States would be completely different,” Ben-Gvir said.

Progressive Democratic and Arab American community groups have launched a primary campaign to withdraw their support for Biden and force him to change his pro-Israel position on the war to accept a permanent ceasefire. But, Reeher warns, if he returned to the White House, “Trump would be less aligned with those desires, and that is one of the ironies” of the situation.

Latin America

In all likelihood, the former president whose influence among Republicans overthrew an immigration reform agreed upon by both parties in January after four months of laborious negotiations, and who in his first term promised the construction of a wall on the southern border of the United States will exercise “ much more pressure on Mexico and Latin America to stop the flow of migrants at the US-Mexico border,” considers Reeher.

The Argentine president, the ultra-liberal Javier Milei, can expect a closer relationship. The real estate magnate has spoken in glowing terms towards him and has promised to visit Argentina. Instead, hostility towards Cuba would resume. During his term, Trump concluded the rapprochement towards the island launched in the era of his predecessor, Barack Obama.

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