Latin American and Caribbean goods exports are projected to grow by 20% in 2026, according to a report released today by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The expansion marks the strongest yearly gain since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021, driven primarily by an 11% rise in export prices and a 9% increase in shipment volumes.
The Bottom Line
- Export Rebound: Total goods export values will increase by 20% in 2026, marking the sixth year of volume growth.
- Divergent Performance: South America captures gains from commodity price cycles, while Mexico stands out for the dynamism of its manufacturing exports.
- Modern Services: Regional modern service exports multiplied by more than 3.5 times over the last two decades, yet the region still holds just a 2% share of the global market.
Commodity Cycles and Manufacturing Divergence Drive Regional Growth
The 20% increase in export value rests on two distinct pillars across the region’s submarkets. José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, noted that South American economies benefit from the cycle of commodity prices, while Mexico stands out for the dynamism of its manufacturing exports.
🌎 What does Latin America and the Caribbean need to achieve stronger and better growth?🤝Authorities, representatives from the @UN system & other intergovernmental organizations, as well as the private sector and academia, will participate in the forty-first session of #ECLAC. pic.twitter.com/m1s18mjR4T
Regional imports of goods are projected to grow 16% in value, fueled by a 12% expansion in volume and a 4% rise in prices. This dynamic reflects a recovery of domestic consumption and a growing demand for intermediate inputs and capital goods.
| Trade Metric (2026 Projection) | Value Growth | Volume Growth | Price Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Exports | 20% | 9% | 11% |
| Goods Imports | 16% | 12% | 4% |
| Services Exports | 11% | N/A | N/A |
Out of the 33 nations tracked in the regional assessment, 28 are expected to register increases in the value of their goods exports in 2026, which would reach double digits in 16 of them.
Modern Services Expand Despite Global Supply Chain Pressures
Beyond physical cargo, exports of services are slated for an 11% expansion, driven by the recovery of transport and travel, and the resilient dynamism of modern services. Transport and tourism recoveries continue to anchor this sector, particularly across Central America and the Caribbean.
Global trade in services reached $9.6 trillion in 2025, with an average annual growth of 6.6% in the last decade. Within Latin America and the Caribbean, modern service exports multiplied by more than 3.5 times over the last two decades, compared to an increase of around 1.6 times in traditional services.
Despite this advance, the region accounts for only 2% of global modern services exports. Daniela García, Director of the Division of International Trade and Integration, emphasized that the current favorable trade situation offers an opportunity to connect trade, productive development, and investment policies with new trends in the global economy.
Geopolitical Friction Threatens Logistics and Market Access
Salazar-Xirinachs highlighted that geopolitical tensions, logistics disruptions, and the competition for critical minerals are restructuring value chains and market access conditions.
To leverage potential, nations must look toward an integrated strategy that combines export promotion, the attraction of foreign direct investment, and human talent development. Countries such as Costa Rica and Uruguay have articulated these areas in sustained strategies.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
