A fragile peace in northern Ethiopia collapsed in September when renewed combat erupted across the Tigray region between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), tearing apart the arrangements of a 2022 peace deal. By October, federal units had recaptured critical infrastructure, including an airport and several towns from rebel control, and advanced toward the border with Eritrea. William Davison reported for War on the Rocks that the renewed violence has sparked intense international concern over internal state stability and the distinct threat of a direct interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The military escalation follows the formation of a new insurgent coalition called the Alliance for Survival, which links the TPLF with several other armed groups opposing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration. As federal troops pressed closer to the frontier in October, the Ethiopian government severed diplomatic ties with Eritrea, formally accusing Eritrea of supporting the TPLF and dispatching military units across the international border into Tigray.
Ethiopia Accuses Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea of Backing Opposition
The federal government’s security anxieties have extended well beyond Eritrean territory. In late September, Ethiopian army chief Birhanu Jula publicly attributed the escalating unrest to what he termed historical and contemporary adversaries, explicitly naming Sudan and Egypt alongside Eritrea as external backers of armed opposition groups within Ethiopia.
According to reporting from Al Jazeera, the accused regional neighbors swiftly rejected the allegations. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki maintained that Cairo’s foreign policy is anchored in respect for state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and noninterference. Major-General Samir Farag, former head of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ Morale Affairs Department, dismissed the accusations as entirely false, telling Al Jazeera that Egypt does not interfere in regional internal affairs.
Simultaneously, Sudan’s military dismissed Khartoum’s involvement as baseless, turning the accusation around to charge Ethiopia with destabilizing behavior by allegedly backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the ongoing Sudanese civil war. Addis Ababa has consistently denied providing support to the RSF.
Regional analysts consulted by Al Jazeera suggested that Addis Ababa’s finger-pointing serves domestic political utility. Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the Egyptian parliament’s African Affairs Committee, described the accusations as an attempt to distract from internal crises by manufacturing an external enemy. Amani al-Tawil, director of the Africa Programme at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, questioned why Egypt would choose this moment to intervene militarily in Ethiopia, noting that the newly announced seven-member rebel coalition poses a formidable domestic challenge to the federal government regardless of external factors.
Longstanding Grievances Across the Horn of Africa
The latest military flare-up compounds diplomatic friction rooted in competing regional interests. Cairo and Addis Ababa remain locked in a bitter, unresolved dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a project that has stoked fears in Egypt regarding the Nile River. Landlocked Ethiopia's strategic ambitions to secure direct access to the sea have deeply alarmed Eritrea, fraying the alliance the two nations formed during the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict.
These overlapping geopolitical flashpoints have transformed northern Ethiopia into a nexus of domestic insurgency and wider Horn of Africa competition, leaving diplomats to monitor whether the collapse of the Tigray peace deal will draw in neighboring capitals or remain contained within Ethiopian borders.
