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After Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to give his Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov the keys to managing the battles in Ukraine, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday, the new commander of operations will have to correct the field military situation against the background of what appears to have become a struggle for power with the Wagner Group. Mission Impossible?
The Russian leaders supervising successively Military operation in Ukraine Constantly, amid what appears to be a fissure war for power in Moscow. Only three months after he was assigned to lead the war in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin left Wednesday his place, but not for the benefit of anyone. President Putin chose to entrust the fate of his “special military operation” to Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff of the armies.
Gerasimov is “the third most important man in the hierarchy of Russian military power – after Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Lavrov – who has to rectify the situation in Ukraine,” said Jeff Haun, a specialist in Russian military issues and a consultant at the News Lines Institute, an American center for geopolitical research. .
- more Moderately me “General Armageddon”
In addition to the fact that Valery Gerasimov is a higher-ranking officer than Sergei Surovikin, the two men are also known to have very different personalities. Sorovikin is even described as “brutal and cruel” and as “mercilessly executed”.
On the other hand, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Front has to his credit “a solid march in Chechnya and Crimea, and is seen as having a moderate influence on the course of the war. He is also someone the Americans can work with,” adds Jeff Haun.
For his part, Stephen Hall, an expert in the secrets of Russian politics from Britain’s University of Bath, believes that “it is certainly not a ‘General Armageddon’ like Sergei Surovikin, but I don’t know the impact it could have on the course of the war.” “Even if he wanted to,” Hall adds, “Valery Gerasimov has neither the equipment nor the means nor the men to fundamentally change the way the Russian army operates.”
From a military point of view, Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security issues, said in a tweet on Twitter, that the appointment of this general “emphasizes that major attacks must be expected during the spring and that Putin understands the need for better coordination between the forces.” Being on the one hand the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and on the other hand the commander of operations in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov should have all the tools necessary to improve this coordination.
- the sacrifice Bagherasimov Or weaken Wagner?
However, the redistribution of roles has political importance above all, as it comes at a crucial moment in light of the power struggle between Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenaries from the Wagner Group on the one hand, and the conventional army on the other.
The latter is not currently popular in Moscow. The war in Ukraine is not going as planned. “They[the Russian military]just got humiliated after the Ukrainian bombing of Makeivka,” says Jeff Hoon.
On the other side, Yevgeny Prigozhin is proud of what he says the Wagner Group has achieved from an alleged “victory” in the town of Solidar, Donbass region, eastern Ukraine. While the Russian army did not show much appreciation for this news, the Staff Command was quick to announce that the paratroopers had contributed significantly to the fighting. All this while the battles in this small town are still raging.
On Friday morning, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Gana Malyar said that her country’s forces are currently responding to a “very intense” Russian attack in Solidar, despite a “heated night”. “Tonight there was a garrison in Solidar and hostilities are continuing,” Maliar said on Telegram. She added, “The enemy has pushed almost all of its main forces towards Donetsk (region) and is continuing a very intensive attack,” considering it a “difficult stage of the war.”
In turn, a spokesman for the Eastern Military Command of Ukraine denied Friday that Russia had taken control of the town of Solidar and said that the Ukrainian units were still there. “Our units are present and the city is not under Russian control,” said spokesman Sergey Sherevaty. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his forces in Solidar are clinging to their positions and inflicting heavy losses on the Russian forces.
Whatever the reality on the ground, the message to conservative circles in Moscow, which is highly critical of the military, is that the Wagner Group has been at the forefront of one of Russia’s few successes in Ukraine. It seems that Yevgeny Prigozhin has scored a point against his main rival in the Kremlin, Defense Minister Sergei Chuigu. “The two hate each other deeply, and each act of each should be seen as an attempt by one of them to weaken the other, in Vladimir Putin’s court,” explains Jeff Haun.
Within this context, Stephen Hall believes that the appointment of Valery Gerasimov can be interpreted in two ways: the most intuitive is that the decision is “a call for discipline addressed by Vladimir Putin to Yevgeny Prigozhin so that the latter does not think that everything is permissible” to him. And the researcher specializing in Russian politics adds that the new commander of operations is, in fact, one of the closest collaborators of Sergei Shoigu. And Hall believes: “There is a big bet that he will let the Wagner Group move less freely than his predecessor, Sergey Surovikin, who is ideologically closer to Prigozhin.”
The designation also eases the burden on Sergei Shoigu, says Stephen Howell, who explains: “He will no longer have to deal with Sergei Surovikin who spent his time trying to stick knives in his back.”
- Model for school “Poutine”
Stephen Hall adds that it would be a model for the “Putinian” school. The master of the Kremlin does not appreciate that a faction of his court takes too much control, or “begins to get too comfortable in public.” Valery Gerasimov thus acquired the authority to bring the Wagner group back into line somewhat.
However, the gift that Vladimir Putin presented to his chief of staff is poisonous. “From now on, he’s on the front line and he can’t blame others if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates further for the Russian military,” explains Jeff Haun.
Hawn also does not rule out that the new role of Valery Gerasimov will be his last. He says here: “He is in a position where he can fail, which will give Vladimir Putin an excuse to get rid of him and thus satisfy the conservative circles.”
It can also be said that Valery Gerasimov’s situation is more delicate than staying in Moscow. As the new distribution of roles means, in fact, that he will be one of two in Ukraine, responsible for carrying out orders, one of whom is none other than Sergey Surovikin. Stephen Holl considers that the latter “may likely try to continue what he was doing previously on the field, while discrediting the work of Valery Gerasimov”.
That’s why this designation is confusing. It is both good and bad news for the Wagner Group, as it will strengthen the defense minister’s wing while greatly weakening one of Sergei Shoigu’s best allies.
Thus are some of the secrets of the conspiracies being hatched in the corridors of the Kremlin in the era of Vladimir Putin. Because the decision, in the end, is a typical case of what the Russian president “does best: manipulate his aides and pit them against each other, so that they are fully occupied with torturing each other, leaving the Russian president with the role of arbiter,” according to Stephen Hall. Vladimir Putin sensed that military setbacks in Ukraine might turn against him. So he decided to put his big wild cats in the same ring, Ukraine.
Sebastian Seibet