German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, that Moscow will not win its war against Ukraine and warned that Russia will face severe economic consequences if it refuses to negotiate. Speaking alongside Kazakh President Kasim-Yomart Tokayev in Berlin, Merz reaffirmed long-term European support for Kyiv while acknowledging critical shortages in air defense.
A Stalled Diplomatic Track in Berlin and New York
Merz pointed directly to discussions held in New York last weekend between German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and his Russian counterpart, Serguei Lavrov.
The Kremlin’s subsequent assessment of those talks made one reality plain to Berlin. According to the German chancellor, Moscow “no tiene el más mínimo interés en conversaciones serias en este momento”. With direct diplomatic channels effectively frozen, Germany and its European partners view sustained military and financial backing as the only viable counterweight.
Berlin insists that Europe remains in a position to support Ukraine for a long time. “Rusia no ganará esta guerra y sufrirá daños masivos en su economía,” Merz warned during the press conference. He added a stark security calculus for the continent, noting that “Ucrania es parte de Europa y si Ucrania cae, la paz y la libertad de toda Europa estarán en peligro”.
The Air Defense Vulnerability Before Winter
Diplomatic rhetoric aside, the immediate operational crisis on the ground remains stark. Merz identified Ukraine’s “mayor punto débil” as the lack of air defense systems heading into the colder months.
To plug this gap, the German government is lobbying other heads of state and government to ramp up deliveries. These systems are deemed critical for shielding Ukraine’s infrastructure from expected Russian winter bombardment.
The German leader pledged continued aid spanning the military, economic, political, and financial sectors.
Kazakhstan’s Push for a Frozen Line
Standing alongside Merz in Berlin, President Kasim-Yomart Tokayev offered a perspective from Central Asia. Tokayev advocated for a freezing of hostilities along current front lines to allow for the “ruta de la diplomacia y las negociaciones”.
| Leader / Official | Country / Affiliation | Key Stance on Ukraine Conflict |
|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz | Germany (Chancellor) | Supports long-term military/financial aid; asserts Russia will not win and will suffer economic damage. |
| Johann Wadephul | Germany (Foreign Minister) | Engaged in talks with Moscow in New York. |
| Kasim-Yomart Tokayev | Kazakhstan (President) | Advocates freezing hostilities along current front lines to enable diplomacy while respecting UN Charter territorial inviolability. |
Tokayev emphasized that Kazakhstan is in favor of the “cumpla la carta de la ONU y de que cada país preserve su inviolabilidad territorial,” while highlighting that it maintains friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine.
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