Mark Mobius, known as the godfather of emerging markets, pessimistically predicts that Bitcoin will fall to $10,000 in 2023 next year. The reason is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to quantitatively tighten, and when market funds are withdrawn, many investors will return funds from the encryption market. withdraw.
(Recap:Emerging market godfather Mobius: Bitcoin may plummet to 10,000! Won’t put money in cryptocurrency ‘too dangerous’ ）
(background supplement:Ethereum setting the tone for securities? CFTC Chairman’s Attitude Changes: Cryptocurrency Only Bitcoin Should Be Treated as a Commodity ）
CompareBitcoin has been consolidating around $17,000 since November 30, compared topriceIt has returned to the level in November 2020. Some well-known investors are pessimistic about the trend of Bitcoin, and the main reason is that the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a profound impact on the overall market; Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, known as the godfather of emerging markets, said in Earlier this month, it warned that Bitcoin may drop by 40% next year, falling to $10,000.
Mobius: Fed Withdraws Market Funds, Cryptocurrencies Are Dead
According to CNBC’s report on Mark Mobiusaccess, his prediction that Bitcoin will fall to $10,000 next year comes from the Fed’s rate hikes and quantitative tightening, and the supply of dollars has grown by more than 40% over the past few years as the U.S. responds to Covid-19 and adopts super Low interest rates to start quantitative easing (QE), which Mobius said has directly helped technology stocks and the cryptocurrency market, but the U.S. central bank this year began to urge a sharp increase in interest rates to tighten the currency. He said:
Now that the Fed is withdrawing cash, people’s ability to bet on the market will become more difficult.
FTX Impacts “Interest Investors” in Crypto Markets
Mark Mobius changed his mind and mentioned that long-term holders of tokens in the cryptocurrency market will indeed deepen their fears because of the thunderstorm of FTX, especially those investors who usually store tokens in centralized institutions to collect interest:
As (U.S.) interest rates increase, it becomes less attractive to hold or buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies because there is no interest on just holding the token.
Of course, there are many companies that offer rates of 5% or more on crypto deposits, but many of them that offered such rates went out of business because of FTX. Therefore, as more and more companies like this go bankrupt, people start to fear holding crypto tokens to earn interest.
As of today, the United Statesnational debt The yield on the 3-month treasury bond is 4.31, and the 6-month treasury bond is 4.66. Compared with the on-chain interest of cryptocurrencies, many investors withdraw their funds from the crypto market and switch to U.S. treasury bonds.
Mark Mobius, a senior Bitcoin investor, successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall to 20,000 in May. In his prediction at the time, he said that Bitcoin would eventually fall to $10,000 after a rebound. In the end, whether his prediction comes true depends largely on when U.S. monetary policy turns dovish.
However, according to Mark Mobius’ previous forecast in October, the Fed’s interest rate hike phase may not end in the first quarter of next year. He said that under the confrontation with inflation, interest rates will soar to 9%, and revealed that he is investing money in Low inflation markets such as Taiwan and India.