The Green Party has surged to 16% support in the latest 1News Verian poll conducted between September 23 and 27, 2026, marking the highest standing in the party’s history and positioning them to secure 19 MPs if repeated at the upcoming November 7 general election. This momentum comes as both major political parties experience downward pressure, with the National Party and the Labour Party both sitting at 28% support.
A Dramatic Shift in the Political Landscape
With just weeks to go until voters head to the polls—and advance voting officially opening on October 26—the political terrain in New Zealand has fractured. The Greens’ four-point jump since August sets a new benchmark for the party. Meanwhile, Labour dropped by two points to reach its lowest standing since February 2024. National fell by a single point, tying a low not seen since the final 1News poll before Judith Collins lost the party leadership in 2021.
Other minor parties are also capitalizing on the voter migration. The ACT Party climbed two points to reach 11%, New Zealand First gained a point to sit at 9%, and the Opportunity Party dropped two points to 6%. Despite the decline, the party remains above the 5% threshold to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
Block Dynamics and Potential Coalitions
The numbers sketch a volatile arithmetic for government formation after November 7. If the current polling translates directly into election results, a left bloc comprising Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and the Opportunity Party would command 65 seats in Parliament. Conversely, the right bloc of National, New Zealand First, and ACT would land at 59 seats.
Such a configuration creates an immediate hurdle regarding party alignments. Christopher Luxon appears to have ruled out National working with the Opportunity Party because of its tax policies. Simultaneously, Labour says it wouldn’t agree to those policies in a coalition deal.
Adding to the complexity, the poll results point to a potential parliamentary overhang of four extra seats above the standard 120-seat threshold. This calculation relies on Te Pāti Māori holding its four electorate seats alongside Mariameno Kapa-Kingi retaining the seat of Te Tai Tokerau. An alternative calculation that gives Te Pāti Māori just one seat and Te Tai Tokerau none eliminates the overhang entirely, leaving Parliament at 120 members while keeping a left-leaning coalition mathematically viable.
Campaign Strategies and Leader Reactions
Party leaders responded to the shifting numbers as the campaign enters its final stretch. Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick described the outcome by stating “pretty cool I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn’t just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency. while emphasizing caution. “I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn’t just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency. Nothing is set in stone,” Swarbrick noted.”
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong framed the data as evidence of a “solid base of support” and widespread voter frustration. The poll showed “a real discontent for the major parties,” Wong said, adding that the party would announce its bottom lines “very soon.”
Christopher Luxon deflected questions regarding National’s polling trajectory. “The only poll that matters now is November the 7th,” Luxon stated. When pressed on the Greens’ rise, the Prime Minister framed the election around a stark binary choice: “It is Labour and their radical mates with six leaders and nine new taxes up against National with no new taxes and a long-term plan to grow this economy.”
Labour leader Chris Hipkins declined to discuss prospective post-election deals before ballots are cast. “But the stronger Labour’s vote, the stronger the government I will be able to form. Only Labour can lead a change of government.” Addressing Labour’s nine-point drop over three polls, he acknowledged that “it’s going to be a very close election, and we’re going to be fighting for every single vote that we can get.”
ACT leader David Seymour emphasized the role of minor parties. “Building the ACT Party will ensure that the coalition is competitive,” Seymour said. Meanwhile, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters dismissed the survey outright, reiterating his long-standing skepticism: “I know I’ve said it for a long time, but this time particularly, the polls are trash,” he said.
Shifting Preferred Prime Minister Rankings and Economic Sentiment
In the preferred prime minister stakes, Christopher Luxon is up 2 points to 19%. Chris Hipkins drops 1 point to 14%. Support for Chlöe Swarbrick has increased by 2 points to reach 8%, Winston Peters of New Zealand First holds firm at 7%, and David Seymour from ACT has climbed 2 points to also reach 7%.
Beyond party politics, public economic sentiment shows signs of thawing. The proportion of voters expecting the economy to improve over the next 12 months rose 5 points since August to reach 44%. Meanwhile, those anticipating economic deterioration fell 3 points to 27%.
With 13% of the 1,004 surveyed voters remaining undecided or refusing to state their preference, the remaining weeks before advance voting begins on October 26 will test whether the Greens can sustain their momentum. How do you see these coalition dynamics playing out next month? Let us know your thoughts below.
