As September draws to a close, a glance down at the Pacific Ocean reveals an extraordinary meteorological spectacle: three active hurricanes spinning in an ominous row between 15 and 20 degrees north. Furthest to the east, Hurricane Polo has been churning off the southern coast of Mexico for nearly a week as an unusually strong storm. To its west, Odalys—once a formidable Category 4 hurricane—slowly weakens in the open ocean. Meanwhile, in the central Pacific, Hurricane Nolo has reached Category 2 status, creeping approximately 145 miles off the coast of Hawaii’s Big Island and threatening up to 25 inches of rain alongside potential flooding and landslides.
The Great Nudger and an Unprecedented El Niño Season
This oceanic chaos is far from a one-off event. Just last month, four distinct storms formed across the Pacific over a compressed 12-day period, with Hurricane Lala and Tropical Storm Moke pushing dangerously close to the Hawaiian archipelago. Driven by an exceptional El Niño event, these tropical systems have increased in frequency compared with a typical year. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, noted that while an average eastern Pacific season sees about 12 tropical storms by this point in the year, 17 have already formed.
The core catalyst behind this hyperactivity is the unusually warm water temperatures fueled by an El Niño cycle. Michelle L’Heureux, who leads the El Niño–Southern Oscillation team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, described the phenomenon simply: “El Niño is the ‘great nudger’ of weather systems around the planet. Very strong El Niños are often able to nudge more.” This atmospheric nudge not only generates stronger storms like Polo—which has wobbled between Category 4 and 5 intensity—but also expands the geographical footprint where tropical systems can successfully form and thrive.
Hawaii’s Relentless Run of Disasters
For the residents of Hawaii, Hurricane Nolo arrives as only the latest trial in an exhausting year of back-to-back natural disasters. In January, the Kilauea volcano erupted for eight hours, blanketing local communities in ash and rock. This was followed in March by historic flooding brought on by back-to-back Kona lows, a seasonal cyclone type. Two months later, a 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck the island, damaging nearly 150 homes. In mid-August, Hurricane Lala bypassed direct landfall but dumped roughly 30 inches of rain onto parts of the Big Island.
David Ho, a professor of oceanography at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, was at his Honolulu home when Lala struck, leaving his neighborhood flooded and cutting him off as part of a statewide blackout affecting 200,000 electricity customers. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency reported that over 200 homes and an estimated $67 million worth of public infrastructure suffered damage. “We have a lot of houses that were built before the building codes were modernized,” Ho explained. “So once in a while, you have roofs that just fly away.”
Weeks after the storm, the ripple effects remain acute, particularly in isolated rural communities where grocery access is limited. Janice Ikeda, CEO of the nonprofit Vibrant Hawaii, pointed to the erosion of baseline preparedness. “We always talk about the importance of being prepared, and you want to have three weeks of food supply and everything,” Ikeda said. “Well, we don’t have that anymore, because it got wiped out.” In response to the crisis, the state reissued Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits to more than 65,000 households, though the cumulative damage leaves infrastructure increasingly vulnerable as Nolo approaches.
A Contrast Across the Oceans
Normally, the Pacific Ocean’s vast expanse and Hawaii’s relatively small landmass mean that most hurricanes roll by at a safe distance. Yet earlier this month, Lowell brushed the western part of the state near Kauai and Niihau, driving hurricane-strength winds and destructive waves ashore and knocking out power for over 90 percent of utility customers in Kauai. While Nolo is projected to track roughly 100 miles off the coast and avoid a direct repeat of Lala or Lowell, the island still faces severe threats from excessive rainfall, coastal flooding, and high surf.
With two months left in the hurricane season and El Niño expected to strengthen further, NOAA’s current predictions indicate that the Pacific will likely see additional storms churn toward Hawaii before the year closes. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin tells a starkly different story. Allison Wing, an associate professor of atmospheric science at Florida State University, notes that El Niño generates strong wind shears in the Atlantic, suppressing storm formation. Nearly four months into the Atlantic hurricane season—traditionally its September peak—not a single hurricane has formed or currently appears on the horizon.
As the Pacific continues to seethe under the influence of the season’s powerful climatic drivers, emergency officials and local communities remain on high alert. How prepared is your own community for extreme weather shifts driven by changing global climate patterns? Let’s discuss in the comments below.
