Meloni aims to make a splash among the current leaders, but he will not beat the all-time records of European elections because the number of voters expected to go to the polls is decreasing. An element for which, for example, he might not even surpass those 2.3 million votes of Matteo Salvini, who was an absolute star in the last competition. This is what the main research institutes say. According to Antonio Noto “the prime minister, this time, is, without a shadow of a doubt, the favorite compared to the others, primarily because she is the only one who should run in all the constituencies”. Elly Schlein, like Antonio Tajani himself, should leave the field free in some areas of the boot, to avoid internal discontent. «Having Fratelli d’Italia many more votes than the other forces in the field – explains the pollster – the prime minister should be the one who gathers the most consensus today. If you do not surpass the preference samples of the past it is only because previously you voted for 64% of voters, while now it is estimated that it will reach 54%. You therefore diminish the basis from which to draw.” Despite this, for the expert, Giorgia should put her face forward: «FdI’s two-thirds vote is due to her presence. Furthermore, if you are on the ballot, you will be able to campaign, while if you are absent, the institutional role will prevail and therefore you will have a softer function, which will have less impact on the base. A leader runs not to be elected in Brussels, but to drag his movement to the best possible result. Which is why, in my opinion, those who spend their efforts only on the territory considered weak, where a famous name is needed to shoot, will be penalized. In this case, an unsustainable contradiction would prevail.”
Even for Renato Mannheimer, the first woman at the helm of Palazzo Chigi could benefit from taking the field personally: «I don’t know if she will be the most voted ever because there are many important precedents, but I can say that her candidacy would be an advantage for Fratelli d’Italia. There are those who have calculated that she could even manage two more points. We are talking about the strongest profile.” For the veteran Eumetra pollster, however, the strength of the head of the M5S Giuseppe Conte should not be underestimated either: «Despite not being an added value like the prime minister, she is very popular. Schlein, however, is more discussed at this particular moment. While Giorgia is seen well by her people, as well as being more attractive, especially among moderates, the secretary of the Democratic Party has a series of conflicts within the Democratic Party to overcome. There are several critical elements. There are more than a few who don’t see it well in the lists, especially among women. She would therefore not have the same driving effect. Schlein, then, was unable to find either the desired unification or new enthusiasm. However, it is not certain that the wind will change between now and June.”
For the analyst, however, the Prime Minister, by putting his name and surname on the ballot, would not only strengthen his leadership in the majority, but also a government, which with the success of its main protagonist, would have at least for the months after Europeans, a downhill journey. A factor that could allow her to extend her so-called honeymoon, currently the longest since the days of the great white whale.
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2024-04-17 21:11:34