2023-08-31 13:37:36
Scientists have warned that the world is at risk of a dangerous wave of coronavirus infection, after an increase in the number of cases caused by new subspecies of the “Omicron” mutant, this summer, according to the newspaper.Financial Times“.
And the British newspaper said in a report, Wednesday, that with the end of the summer holidays and the return of children to schools, governments and vaccine manufacturers are preparing for a new season of vaccination campaigns against the Corona virus in the fall, with adjusting doses to deal with the new variants that are most prevalent, and targeting citizens most in need.
The newspaper added that, despite the low rates of need for hospitalization, experts say that so far, corona cannot be treated as a seasonal virus like influenza, as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned, last week, that the sub-mutant The new BA.2.86 may be more capable of causing infection in people who have previously had corona infection, or who have received vaccinations against it, and it urged people at risk to wear masks in public places.
The newspaper quoted Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of “Saskatchewan” in Canada, as saying that all possibilities will be in the event that a new mutant appears more widespread than “Omicron”, which has been the dominant strain for nearly two years.
And she added: “We may start to see an increase in the number of cases if there is a large number of susceptible populations, and it does not have to be only in the winter when the atmosphere is ripe for transmission, as we have not seen the end of this virus yet, and it will continue to pass through new mutations.” Which will have unexpected results.”
Seasonal disease?
The number of coronavirus infections last winter peaked in the northern hemisphere around the Christmas holiday season, before declining in the spring and summer, but experts warn that it is too early to expect the disease to follow the pattern of other respiratory pathogens.
Adam Kucharski, a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says: “It is true that the virus followed a stable pattern in the past year, but I do not think that this is a reason to expect the number of cases to peak again in late December. There should be several smaller scale peaks during the winter.”
Although the rate of transmission usually increases as people socialize indoors in the winter, it can also spike in warmer climates during the summer because people congregate indoors to avoid exposure to the heat.
Kucharsky pointed out that in the period between 2020 and 2021, before the widespread introduction of vaccines, different regions were affected by new strains to the same extent, but now that different populations are exposed to various strains, it has become difficult to predict the danger of newer mutants when crossing into new regions. .
A powerful new mutant
Although politicians’ attention has shifted towards economic recovery from the pandemic, many scientists still believe there is a great chance that a “new powerful mutant” will emerge that can overcome the existing immunity of the population.
Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, USA, says it is not clear how transmissible BA.2.86 is, and vaccine makers have not yet indicated whether their modified doses are able to counteract this new variant, but it is. He warns that booster vaccines may not help much because the virus is subject to 30 mutations.
Topol had surveyed 10 experts before the emergence of recent sub-mutants such as BA.2.86, EG.5.1 and FL.1.5 regarding the possibility of another “Omicron”-like strain spreading as a result of the virus undergoing a very rapid evolution likely among people with weak immunity.
Scientists estimated that this would happen by 2025, on average, at 10-20%, while one expert estimated the probability of this happening at 38%. “The risk is too great to ignore,” says Topol.
New vaccines
According to the newspaper, booster doses are scheduled to be provided to the elderly and the most vulnerable people in many countries this fall, as manufacturers have followed the FDA’s recommendation to update their doses to protect against the XBB.1.5 sub-mutant currently circulating.
Unlike last year, when some vaccines targeted mutants, the US agency has now recommended that we focus on this variant, and a European Medicines Agency committee recommended, last Wednesday, that the European Union’s Medicines Regulatory Authority approve an updated vaccine that specifically targets this variant.
The newspaper indicated that these vaccination campaigns will often use the “Pfizer” and “Moderna” vaccines, as the first aims to provide the latest booster dose for it at the same time that updated influenza vaccines are being provided, in late September or early October next, as expected. Moderna is expected to sell between 50 and 100 million doses in the United States, and will supply Britain with doses at a similar time, but it is still in negotiations with the European Union.
Work continues to manufacture comprehensive vaccines for coronaviruses, but immunologists say that it is difficult to conduct trials on a vaccine designed to address many respiratory pathogens when the Corona virus is most prevalent.
Governments have halted much of the coronavirus testing that was tracking infections, and as a result, Topol says, health authorities will only be able to know if there has been an increase in the case rate if a new variant causes severe disease.
Corona treatments improved
Amish Adalja, an infectious disease specialist and senior researcher at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, says that the care of most Corona virus patients has become so routine that it can be dealt with by general departments in hospitals, adding: “The situation has become more manageable than it was. it before.”
But Rasmussen of the University of Saskatchewan expressed her fear that people may have forgotten the Corona virus, which makes tracking cases, treating patients and vaccinating the most vulnerable people more difficult, adding: “This virus will continue to claim the lives of many people just like the seasonal flu, and it will It may harm people in the long term because of its long-term effects.”
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