Early voting data from October 2026 indicates that affiliated Democrats are turning out in high numbers across Ohio, cutting into traditional Republican margins even in the state’s most conservative strongholds. Data from the Ohio Secretary of State indicates that in counties where Donald Trump won by 20 percentage points or more in 2024, the Republican lead among pre-election voters has plummeted from 30 points down to just five points.
The shifting electorate arrives as Sherrod Brown campaigns to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted in a contest that could help determine control of the Senate. A recent CNN poll places Brown ahead by six points, while Democrat Amy Acton holds an eight-point lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
Statewide, the overall pre-election electorate is tracking roughly 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point during the 2024 cycle. Even so, party registration data does not reveal how individuals ultimately cast their ballots, and voting patterns could fluctuate as Election Day approaches.
Shifting Margins in Conservative Strongholds
The narrowing gap is visible in counties that strongly backed Donald Trump in 2024. Data from the Ohio Secretary of State shows that affiliated Democrats currently make up a larger share of pre-election voters than they did two years ago.
Conversely, counties that strongly supported Kamala Harris are also seeing high mobilization. Those areas were at 74 percent of their turnout from the same point in 2024, compared to 67 percent in the strongest Trump counties. That seven-point turnout gap closely mirrors trends observed in Virginia over the same period, according to figures provided by Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups.
Similar partisan shifts are appearing in New Jersey, where pre-election voters in counties favoring Trump have shifted nearly 11 points toward Democrats compared to this point in 2024. Unlike Ohio, New Jersey voters do register with a party.
The Decline of Mail-In Ballots and the Turnout Timeline
Ohio’s early voting figures also point toward a shift in the way people are voting following the Covid-19 pandemic. While early in-person voting is running at 72 percent of what it was at this point in 2024, mail-in voting is at 25 percent.
Ohio is at about 11 percent of its total early voting turnout from 2022. Because Republicans in recent years have been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day, these trends could change.
