Saudi Arabia pumped 10.563 million barrels per day in October.
Crude outputs reached their highest levels since before the Iran war disrupted supplies in February, triggering a global energy and shipping crisis, according to an OPEC report issued on Wednesday.
That production level marks an increase of over two million barrels per day from the September output, bringing Riyadh close to the 10.882 million barrels per day it produced just before the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February.
Rising output by Saudi Arabia and Russia drove an increase for the broader OPEC+ group, which pumped 41.23 million barrels per day in October. That total represents a rise of about 2.04 million barrels per day from September.
Mid-October brought an increase in Russian production following US President Donald Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on Russian energy and declare an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Gulf oil producers recovered exports by utilizing workarounds like ship-to-ship transfers to bypass trade disruptions caused by the conflict.
Saudi Arabia maintained stable exports despite Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen attacking its secondary oil supply route, the East-West Pipeline. Umud Shokri, an energy strategist, pointed out that the pipeline allows crude oil to traverse the nation toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
“One reason Saudi Arabia has been able to recover some of its exports is its East-West Pipeline, which allows crude oil to move across the country to the Red Sea port of Yanbu without passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University, telling Al Jazeera.
Shokri said that the United Arab Emirates possesses a similar advantage through its pipeline to Fujairah located outside the strait. He warned that Gulf countries are learning the high cost of dependence on a single maritime chokepoint.
“The bigger picture is that Gulf countries are learning how costly dependence on a single maritime chokepoint can be,” Shokri warned. “They are looking for ways to make their exports more resilient, but Hormuz remains too important to the global energy market to be easily bypassed.”
The rise in Saudi production could help ease inflationary pressures facing American consumers by bringing downward pressure on gasoline, transportation, and production costs, according to Shokri. However, he cautioned that higher output does not automatically translate to lower prices at American gas stations.
The OPEC report left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged after cutting them for six straight months, making no alterations to its 2027 outlook. The producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 2.55 million barrels per day next year to average 108.3 million barrels per day, following projected growth of 180,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina will drive growth in energy-related liquids production in 2027, the report forecasted. The document also offered an optimistic outlook for the Middle East’s near-term economic performance.
“In 2027, the region’s economy is expected to rebound and economic activity to recover, supported by a resilient non-oil sector and robust domestic demand,” it said.
