Special Competitive Studies Project Assesses U.S.-China SMR Tech Competition

The Special Competitive Studies Project released a Tech Scorecard report titled “Sizing Up SMRs: Assessing U.S.-China Tech Competition in Small Modular Reactors,” detailing how both nations are positioning themselves in nuclear power to fuel artificial intelligence, manufacturing, and data centers amid tightening energy constraints.

Energy Demands and the Small Modular Reactor Race

Energy availability now acts as the primary bottleneck determining industrial output, living standards, and the ultimate victor in the race to advance artificial intelligence. Nuclear power must be part of the response because it is safe, reliable, clean, and was developed in the United States. Yet for thirty years, nuclear power has proven too expensive to build domestically, resulting in a net loss of overall nuclear capacity. China has not faced the same domestic stymied growth, instead dramatically increasing its generation first with imported designs and later with indigenous reactors.

Small modular reactors, known as SMRs, are factory-built and scalable, offering a potential shift in cost-effectiveness and cost-predictability. Their small size allows them to reach consumers like data centers, factories, and military bases that need power measured in megawatts rather than gigawatts without emitting carbon. However, China’s two decades of nuclear buildout have left it more capable in most respects. In the period following the start of construction on the two newest U.S. reactors in 2013, China has constructed 14 reactors from the ground up, finished 28 that were already in progress, and at present has 32 additional units under construction.

Metric / Indicator	United States	China
Current SMR Commercial Operations	Targeting the 2030s	HTR-PM (2023), ACP100 (Expected 2026)
Strategic Approach	Decentralized innovation via private companies and national labs	State-backed corporations with consolidated designs
Scorecard Category Advantage	Leads in innovation ecosystem	Leads in four out of five overall categories

Diverging Strategies Across Two Superpowers

China holds an interesting dynamic where it has the pieces in place to scale SMRs quickly, but possesses less domestic incentive to do so compared to the United States. The United States lacks recent experience in building large reactors from scratch, creating a less experienced workforce, but faces an acute need for SMR innovation to power surging compute demands.

The American SMR strategy involves widespread innovation driven by dozens of private companies pursuing distinct designs, supported by dedicated national laboratory infrastructure. Conversely, China’s approach is anchored by massive state corporations featuring fewer designs with concentrated momentum. China currently holds a commercial lead. The HTR-PM began commercial operations in 2023, and the ACP100 is scheduled to bring its first unit online this year, whereas the United States will likely not deploy an operational SMR until the 2030s.

US and China Compete in Nuclear Innovation

The Special Competitive Studies Project scorecard charts over thirty definitive metrics, diagnosing that China holds advantages in four out of five categories while remaining entirely reachable for competition. The United States maintains its lead in core innovation, backed by a competitive marketplace of private enterprises and federal lab networks. Both nations possess historical experience in building large nuclear reactors, laying the groundwork for a tight race in small modular deployment.

Beyond domestic grids, the competition extends to global exports. China has faced hurdles in finding international partners for its nuclear designs, while Russia’s former leadership in the export market lags. This opens a potential pathway for the United States to secure a competitive edge through international deployment.