Stéphane Dion warned that it will not be easy to avoid a Parti Québécois majority in Quebec’s provincial election, describing the vote as a high-stakes double election centered on a potential referendum for secession. montrealgazette.com reported on the remarks, which the former federal Liberal leader delivered during a special edition of The Corner Booth podcast recorded at Temple Emanu-El-Beth Sholom in Westmount.
The Mechanics of a Double Election
Voters normally weigh candidates, leaders, and party programs to govern the province. Dion explained that the current provincial election carries an entirely different weight because the Parti Québécois is positioned to win and has committed to holding a referendum on secession. This transforms a standard ballot box decision into an initial step toward breaking away from Canada. Dion drafted the Clarity Act in response to the 1995 Quebec referendum, establishing conditions for federal negotiations if a province votes to secede.
A normal election is when you cast your ballot, you have in mind which would be the best candidate, the best party, the best leader, the best program to govern the province or the country,
Dion said during the event hosted by Bill Brownstein and Aaron Rand. That’s a normal election, and Quebecers would like to have a normal election.
A double election is when you add to this dimension, ‘Do I want, yes or no, to start a first step towards secession?’ And this is happening each time the Parti Québécois is in a situation to win the election and, in addition to it, is committing to hold a referendum on secession,
he added.
Strategic Voting Realities in Montreal
Polling indicators place the likelihood of a majority Parti Québécois government between 35 and 50 percent. Dion outlined the severe difficulties facing voters trying to use strategic voting to block a referendum outcome. In areas like Montreal, where the Liberals secure large margins with up to 70 percent of the vote, those tallies still only translate to a single seat. This math makes preventing a Parti Québécois majority a challenging objective.
Even if the party falls short of an outright majority of seats, they could still control a majority of separatist MNA seats in the legislature. Québec solidaire also brings separatist alignment into the assembly, though their voter base does not necessarily share that ideological goal. Dion noted that cooperation between Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois would face friction because the former views the Parti Québécois as far too rightist.
Sovereignist Movements Impact National Politics Before Election Day
Sovereignist movements carry national resonance beyond provincial borders. Dion emphasized that Canadians outside Quebec should pay close attention to political shifts in the province, drawing a parallel to his own perspective as a Canadian in Quebec who monitors events in Alberta.
The discussion arrived as the campaign entered its final weeks. Earlier in September, five main party leaders squared off in two French-language debates. Political columnists Raphaël Melançon and Robert Libman analyzed the leadership performances and undecided voter trends less than three weeks before election day, as reported on The Corner Booth on iheart.com.
