The stock market has been on a historic run since late 2022, pushing major indexes to all-time highs according to market reports. The three major indexes—the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite—have posted double-digit gains for three consecutive years. With all three up double digits again, a successful hold would mark the first four-year streak of its kind since the dot-com era.
Stock Market Reaches Record Highs Amid Historic Valuations
This remarkable bull run has driven stock market valuations toward a dangerous high. The CAPE ratio, which compares the S&P 500’s price with its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, sits in the 40-plus territory for the first time since the 2000s. Historically, high CAPE ratios have typically preceded market corrections or crashes. During the 1920s, the CAPE hit a historic high of about 32.6 before the market crash that ended the Roaring Twenties, while the dot-com bubble saw a CAPE high of 44.2. Consequently, today’s market represents the second-most-expensive period in roughly 155 years of market history. Despite these concerning signs and high valuations, financial guidance suggests staying invested over the long run rather than trying to time the market.
SpaceX Stock Stabilizes as Options Traders Flash Mixed Signals
Shares of SpaceX have transitioned from a volatile public-market debut to a remarkably quiet trading period, spending roughly three weeks trading in a narrow range around $140 according to recent analysis. Following a public-market debut that saw shares close their first trading session at $160.95, surge above $225, and tumble below $105, the stabilization near $140 has caused implied volatility to collapse.
This newfound stability aligns with SpaceX’s rapid transition from a highly speculative initial public offering to an institutional holding. The company was added to major indexes including the Nasdaq-100, which forced benchmark-tracking funds to buy and hold the stock, while a Goldman Sachs analysis found SpaceX among a small group of stocks where both hedge funds and mutual funds were overweight relative to the S&P 500.
Options traders remain divided on the stock’s immediate trajectory. Although open put contracts still outnumber calls with a put-to-call open-interest ratio of about 1.1, recent trading activity has leaned toward bullish bets. Out of roughly 500,000 SpaceX options contracts traded on a recent Thursday, approximately 335,000 were calls, with about 168,000 of those calls likely purchased compared to about 75,000 bought puts. Furthermore, the seven most heavily traded contracts were all calls, led by a $144 strike call nearing expiration that reflects short-term bets on an increase in share price.
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