With the presentation of the takeover bid by Grupo Argos, last Thursday a new chapter began in Jaime Gilinski’s corporate move, which began on November 11, 2021. His intention seems to be to take over a very good part of the Antioquia Business Group. (GEA), a consortium to which companies such as Grupo Sura, Grupo Nutresa, Grupo Argos, Cementos Argos, Celsia, AFP Protección, Enka de Colombia, and the jewel in the crown, Bancolombia, belong.
Although he already has a 34.5% stake in the insurance and investment company and a 30.8% stake in the multi-Latin food company, the most recent takeover bid in the public market was not as successful as the buyer expected. The offer for Inversiones Suramericana only gave Gilinski an additional 2.99%, while that of Nutresa was declared void because it did not even reach the minimum stated in the initial booklet.
Now the investor intends between 26% and 32.5% of the Argos shares in circulation, an amount for which he would be willing to pay each paper at US$4.08 or $16,527 according to the Representative Market Rate (TRM) for last Friday. . In total, it would disburse between US$697 million and $872 million, while, in local currency, the amount would range between $2.82 billion and $3.53 billion. Gilinski has paid more than $2.499 million so far.
As happened in the first two purchase intentions, the key to reaching the goal would be the Pension Fund Administrators (AFP), who, usually, are almost obliged to sell due to the fiduciary duty to which they must respond, when their work tries to find the highest possible profitability for its affiliates.
Andrés Moreno, a financial and stock market analyst, assured that it is very possible that the pension funds will sell totally or partially because there is no certainty that more offers will come. “However, these partners will not be enough for him and he will have to resort to foreigners. It is possible that he will achieve 26% but it will be tight”.
Currently, the largest partners of this issuer are Sura, with 35.32%, and Nutresa, with 12.41% of the ordinary shares. However, the different funds of the four firms complete control of 12.45% of the outstanding shares.
Among these they lead the moderate protection fund of Porvenir, with 3.74%; followed by the moderate Protection fund, with 2.88%; the moderate fund of Colfondos, with 1.55%; the highest risk fund of Porvenir, with 1.15%; the fund with the highest risk of Protection, with 0.93%; and Skandia’s moderate fund, with 0.52%.
Other participants that could eventually decide to get out of their slice are minority and foreign shareholders through the iShares Colcap stock fund, which has 3.06%, and the S&P Horizons Colombia Select fund, with 1.08%. To these are added other actors such as Amalfi, which has 5.66%; Inversiones El Yarumo, which have 2.70%; Jmrv & Cia, with 0.91%; and Fundación Fraternidad Medellín, with 0.77%.
According to Wilson Tovar, manager of Economic Research in Stocks & Securities, the pension funds must sell something, although there is fear that the takeover bid will be declared void again if the goal is not reached. “There is a lot of liquidity to buy large amounts of shares. The market could even be discussing the arrival of an offer for Bancolombia, this if, eventually, it does not achieve its goal in Argos”.
The expert added that this new takeover bid is a kind of thermometer to see how successful it could be if it moves forward with its idea. “If the market’s response makes sense to him, there would be a second takeover bid for Argos.”
What’s next in the takeover bid?
If no additional requirements are made and the bank guarantees are presented to the BVC, next Friday the approval of the new OPA presented for Grupo Argos would be given.
After the green light is given by the regulatory body, the bidder will have to simultaneously publish the bid booklet and the first notice of the process through mass media.
In a range of five calendar days, you are obliged to move three offer notices. In these, you must include the term for acceptance of the OPA, which must not be less than ten days nor more than 30 business days.
Share of this issuer has grown 17% since the first takeover bid
Before the Financial Superintendence of Colombia (SFC) ordered the suspension of Grupo Argos’ common stock, it closed down 0.44% to $13,540. When its movement is observed since the first takeover bid for the food multilatin was presented, a gain of 17% is evident, while so far this year it has climbed 15.7% and in the last 12 months it already adds one variation of more than 23.31%. Its current market capitalization is $10.57 trillion.