According to the RKI, the last reliable corona data was available before Christmas. Experts doubt that they represent reality in view of the omicron spread. There would be solutions to this.
The number of new corona infections in Germany has been reported daily since the beginning of the crisis. Currently there is loud Robert Koch Institute (RKI) 58,912 new corona cases (as of January 5, 2022). The seven-day incidence determined from this is 258.6.
But these values do not reflect what Germany is currently experiencing. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) also had to point out that its daily information cannot be trusted.
RKI: Corona situation only incompletely shown
For days it has been said that the data on the infection process are currently not reliable. Because of the holidays, fewer people were tested and not all health authorities forwarded their data, said the RKI.
But not only do fewer tests and reports distort the picture between the years. Basically, we have not had any reliable data on the current level of infection in Germany for months.
Has Omikron replaced Delta yet? We do not know it
The health authorities are chronically overloaded. Some federal states, such as Saxony, already suspended contact tracking at the end of 2021 in order to be able to record new cases of infection. This is what Dr. Ute Teichert, Chairwoman of the Federal Association of Doctors in the Public Health Service, in an interview with t-online.
The laboratories have also been working at the limit for a long time – because of Delta. Now comes the highly contagious one Omicron variant and complicates the situation. Experts believe that Omikron will replace Delta as the predominant variant in a few days or weeks. Due to the data gap, we do not know whether this has possibly even happened.
Because: Germany examines far too few corona samples for variants. Other countries such as Denmark or Great Britain, where Omikron is already predominant, were able to follow the spread much better. Large-scale sequencing was used there at the beginning of the pandemic in order to track down variants. Every tenth sample has been examined since then.
In Germany, on the other hand, only every thousandth positive corona sample had been sequenced by mid-2021. This large difference has now diminished, but Germany is still lagging behind when it comes to sequencing.
Why isn’t more being done?
“The more sequencing we have, the better the assessment of the situation,” confirmed the virologist Jörg Timm from the Düsseldorf University Hospital in an interview with the editorial network Germany. There are three main reasons why this does not happen: Sequencing costs around 200 euros and is very time-consuming. And in times of staff shortage not manageable anyway.
Laboratory examination (symbol picture): The virus variant can only be determined by sequencing. (Source: CTK Photo / imago images)
Maintaining the critical infrastructure is currently the most important thing for the laboratories themselves. “Because the Omikron variant is known to be significantly more contagious than the previous variants and is spreading even faster across the country, it is particularly important in the current course of the pandemic that we all continue to comply with the corona rules,” said Prof. Dr. Jan Kramer, specialist in laboratory medicine.
Although Omikron seems to lead to milder courses in vaccinated people, they also fell ill in the facilities of the critical infrastructures – […] also in the laboratories – more and more employees and then dropped out for several days. This could be problematic for maintaining laboratory work.
Expert: That could provide a better perspective
An increase in staff would therefore be necessary, especially in the offices and laboratories, in order to follow the looming omicron wave. Because as long as we do not know the proportion of the variant, according to experts, its actual influence on the pandemic cannot be assessed.
Prof. Helmut Küchenhoff, statistician from the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, therefore advocates a breakdown of the incidences according to virus variants. “If you had a solution according to variants and knew that this is the rate of increase of Omikron, that is the rate of increase of Delta, you would see more clearly,” he said on Deutschlandfunk. It is “a sensible strategy to look at it separately”.
The already known sticking point: These data are not available for Germany.
According to Küchenhoff, the numbers on vaccination breakthroughs in hospitals could also help to better assess Omikron. This data in turn should actually be reported, but is incomplete in Germany.
Hospitalization rate still resilient
The expert therefore recommends looking at the number of Corona hospital admissions: “We are of the opinion that the hospitalization indicator is becoming more important at Omikron, because at Omikron you have the uncertainty that you don’t know how difficult the processes are compared to the incidence, “said Küchenhoff on Deutschlandfunk. The hospitalization incidence is not affected by an unreported number and reflects the burden on the health system and the population.
But back to reality: the hospitalization rate does not offer a real-time view either, but only one direction. Because of the way in which it is recorded and the long reporting channels, it is sometimes weeks behind.
Important NOTE: The information is in no way a substitute for professional advice or treatment by trained and recognized doctors. The content of t-online cannot and must not be used to independently make diagnoses or start treatments.
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