“The situation at the front has worsened.” The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine spoke about the tactical successes of the Russian Federation

In his post, Syrsky said that the most difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces had developed in two directions in the Donetsk region: Pokrovsky, that is, near the village of Ocheretino north-west of Avdeevka, where Russian troops managed to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; and also on Kurakhovsky, near Marinka.

“The enemy has deployed up to four brigades in these directions and is trying to develop an offensive west of Avdeevka and Maryinka, making its way to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo,” writes Syrsky. “Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, preserving the life and health of our defenders, moved to new lines west of Berdychi, Semenovka and Novomikhailovka.”

Berdychi and Semenovka are two settlements that are located near Ocheretino. The statement that the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreated to the west of these villages means that the Russian Army managed to somewhat expand the breakthrough zone in this area.

Recently, our military observer Ilya Abishev explained why the breakthrough of the Russian army near Ocheretino is dangerous.

“In general, in these areas the enemy achieved certain tactical successes, but was unable to gain an operational advantage,” says Syrsky.

On Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Defense also reported that the Russian army managed to take control of the settlement of Novobakhmutovka, southeast of Ocheretino. The Ukrainian military does not confirm this data, but the DeepState project, which is close to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, classifies this village as part of the Russian control zone.

“Significant advantage” of Russia

The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine described the general situation at the front as follows: “The situation at the front has worsened. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy concentrated its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means. Actively attacks along the entire front line, and has tactical successes in some directions.”

At the same time, Syrsky notes that the situation is changing quickly, “individual positions change hands several times during the day, which gives rise to an ambiguous understanding of the situation.”

Tension does not subside in the south, in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, where Russian troops are trying to advance, but, according to Syrsky, have not achieved success.

“There are no signs of the enemy’s immediate preparation for offensive actions in the North of Ukraine,” the commander-in-chief also notes. “At the same time, we are monitoring the increase in numbers and regrouping of enemy troops in the Kharkov direction.”

Syrsky also claims that in the Kherson region, where Ukrainian and Russian troops are fighting for control of areas adjacent to the banks of the Dnieper, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance and gain control of the island of Nestryga.

Russian forces in Ukraine have achieved some successes amid a lack of ammunition and fresh reinforcements from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian military did not receive new military assistance from the United States, Kyiv’s most powerful ally, for about six months; The country’s parliament also only recently approved amendments to the law on mobilization, which may allow new forces to be recruited into the army.

Russia was also able to increase missile attacks on Ukraine and destroy several large Ukrainian power plants – even as Ukrainian air defenses were weakened by a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, including Western ones.

What analysts say

In one of the latest reviews, analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write that in the coming weeks, while Ukraine waits for American aid to arrive at the front, Russian troops are likely to achieve significant tactical successes, but are unlikely to be able to break the Ukrainian defense.

In April, the US Congress passed a law allocating a new aid package to Kyiv totaling $61 billion. The Pentagon has already announced that it is sending the first batch of aid worth $1 billion and has allocated another $6 billion to purchase weapons for Ukraine from industry.

According to ISW experts, new assistance from the United States will allow Ukrainian troops to solve the problem of lack of material resources and slow down ongoing Russian offensive operations. At the same time, Russian forces appear to be intensifying attempts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and strengthening their positions, awaiting the arrival of American assistance.

American analysts continue that Russian forces have the opportunity to achieve significant tactical successes in the Avdiivka area and achieve an operationally significant goal by capturing Chasov Yar (an important stronghold of the Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region).

But none of these attempts are likely to develop into an operationally significant breakthrough of the front in the near future, let alone cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defense line in the Donetsk region, according to ISW.

They note that this summer, better-resourced forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to prevent operationally important breakthroughs during Russia’s expected summer offensive actions. However, Russian troops will continue to pose a significant threat to Ukraine in the summer.

At the same time, the Russians do not have enough modern and effective equipment that they can deploy in Ukraine, and the overall combat effectiveness of Russian formations and units continues to decline, the report says.

What will the summer campaign be like?

Russian forces rely in part on their numerical advantages in equipment and manpower, and according to ISW analysts, this emphasis on quantity (regardless of quality) has brought the Russian army a number of tactical successes, and Russia will continue to rely on it in the summer campaign.

In addition, the Russians are gradually, albeit unevenly, learning from past operational planning mistakes.

Most likely, the summer offensive will take place on a wider sector of the front, ISW suggests.

Russian forces have also begun using glide bombs en masse, which will continue to play a critical role in supporting Russian ground operations this summer, despite likely improvements in Ukrainian air defense capabilities.

ISW analysts note that the Russians are continuing large-scale technological improvements to their forces and are preparing to take advantage of these innovations before American aid reaches the Ukrainian Armed Forces in full.

However, at the tactical level, this technological adaptation has not yet been completed, which opens a window of opportunity for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, experts say.

It is likely that Ukraine will stabilize the front in the coming months and will be able to launch limited counter-offensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025, ISW believes.