Will Donald Trump stay in the White House for four more years or will Joe Biden rise to the helm? The US presidential election is decided in only a fraction of the 50 states. It could be dramatic again in Florida.
In recent national polls, Joe Biden five to nine percentage points ahead of Donald Trump and can therefore have legitimate hopes that he will be the 46th President of the United States of America. But this seemingly comfortable leadership has its pitfalls. For one thing, Trump turned a backlog four years ago. Second, the so-called “popular vote” is not decisive for the outcome of the election. “It’s not the candidate with the most votes who wins, but the one with the most electors,” explains a political scientist Christian Lammert from the John F Kennedy Institute at Freie Universität Berlin in the ntv podcast “Learned something again”.
The American people elect their president only indirectly through the so-called “Electoral College”, the electoral college. The winner is the candidate who gets 270 of those electoral votes can unite. Each state sends a different number of electors depending on the size of the population. “The winner-takes-all principle is applied in almost all states. This means that the candidate with the most votes gets all the electors. That naturally leads to distortions,” underlines Lammert.
Such distortions have robbed Hillary Clinton of the presidency. In 2016 she received almost 66 million votes, three million more than Donald Trump. However, Trump brought important “swing states” and won in the end by 304 to 227 voters. This was the fifth time in US history that the election winner with fewer votes became president. This was also the case between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000, and three times before that in the 19th century.
There are many US states in which neither Democrats nor Republicans have to campaign because one of the parties has a clear advantage and the result is more or less certain in advance. “Then you just focus on these few states, which are called swing or battleground states. There, the race between Democrats and Republicans is traditionally close,” reports Lammert.
No democratic victory since 1964
Donald Trump can certainly count on the votes of the electorate in nine states before this year’s election. Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming have always voted for the Republican candidate since 1968 inclusive, they are safe “Red States”. In 1964, Lyondon B. Johnson was the last Democrat to prevail in the sparsely populated states. Trump is also heading towards a secure majority in Alabama and Mississipi, where the Republicans have been ahead since 1980. Nothing should burn in Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee and West Virginia. Overall, the incumbent president can safely plan with 19 states and their 117 electors. However, there is still a long way to go before the magical 270.
In the case of Joe Biden, in addition to the capital Washington DC, there are 17 states that can be considered democratic strongholds. These include populous California and New York, which together alone send 84 voters. There are also Washington and Oregon in the northwest, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia in the northeast of the states. From Joe Biden’s point of view, the situation in Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico and Hawaii is also reassuring. If the ex-vice president doesn’t experience any surprises in these states, he has 210 voters.
The result is thus in sight in 36 of the 50 states, leaving only 14 states where the race is close. This includes, to a lesser extent, South Carolina and, somewhat surprisingly, Texas, where the Republicans have always won since 1980. “I would be cautious about giving the Democrats hope that they can win there because the Republicans still have an advantage in the polls,” Lammert notes. However, the “Lone Star State” has changed because cities like Houston have grown and the “democrats in these cities and especially in the suburbs are mobilizing very well.”
Republicans tremble for Texas
The race is also close in Georgia, a red state since 1996, and in Iowa. Trump also won here in 2016, but according to current polls he is only just ahead. If he still wins in South Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Iowa, he would get 186 voters.
Among the Democrats, three of the 20 states they won in the last election are at risk. In Minnesota, where the race was particularly close four years ago, Biden has an average of almost ten percentage points in all polls Head Start. It is in New Hampshire and Nevada only five to six percentage points ahead. If it stays that way, Biden would have 233 of the necessary 270 voters.
Seven hard-fought states remain: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Biden wins four of these states, he is definitely the new US President.
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by a few thousand votes over Hillary Clinton. Biden is currently slightly ahead, but a four percentage point lead in the polls is an uncertain hand. “Biden was born in Pennsylvania, but then moved to Delaware with his parents at a fairly early age. Trump is currently trying to take advantage of that. He says Biden has let Pennsylvania down. Polls currently show that things are not looking bad for the Democrats here, but not good either,” says Lammert. The US expert explains that many voters would still believe in Trump and his promises. “That also applies to Michigan and Wisconsin, where there is a lot of steel industry and auto industry. Here, too, the Democrats have to try to win back the white working class. They still have problems there at the moment.”
Wahldrama im “Sunshine State”
According to polls in Ohio, the race is even more competitive. Biden’s lead averages two percentage points. In North Carolina and Florida, the key state par excellence, it also comes down to a coin toss. Especially since the “Sunshine State” is always good for a tight election result. The duel between George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election is legendary. With almost six million votes cast, Bush ended up being 537 (!) ahead of Gore. For weeks, the count was repeated again and again, and the final result is still disputed to this day. A repetition of the election drama in 2020 cannot be ruled out.
“It depends very much on Florida. Whoever wins there has very good chances. If Biden wins, the election is almost over,” predicts Lammert. “Biden had an advantage, but Trump has caught up massively in recent weeks. This is mainly due to the Hispanic population, which is very heterogeneous in Florida.” In addition, the Cuban community is on Trump’s side, “because he’s taking a tough line against Cuba again. That goes down well with this group of voters.”
On the other hand, there are also many people in Florida who fled from natural disasters. “Many come from the US territory of Puerto Rico, so they already have the right to vote,” Lammert explains. The big question is whether the Democrats can sufficiently mobilize these and other constituencies. If that doesn’t succeed, many votes for Joe Biden could fall by the wayside. “Another factor is the retirees. Florida is the retiree state, there are some gated communities there.” Traditionally, retirees would tend to vote Republican, but many, as a high-risk group, were deterred by Trump’s corona policy, reports the political scientist.
Since 1996, the candidate who won Florida has always moved into the White House. If Joe Biden also gets Ohio, he has reached his goal. Especially since the “Buckeye State” has the best series of all US states. Since the 1964 election, whoever was victorious in Ohio became president.
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