What we know
Ian, this ninth system in the Atlantic Basin, is currently located in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Mexico. For the moment, it is following a northeast trajectory, which allows it to quickly gain in intensity thanks to the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.
The island of Cuba should be the first to suffer its repercussions. Significant amounts of rain are expected in some of its sectors as well as strong winds for the beginning of the week. More than 300 mm of rain are expected in places. Flash floods and landslides are possible consequences to watch out for from Ian’s passage. Thereafter, the system is expected to reach the Keys, Florida, around the middle of the week.
On track to become a major hurricane
However, between the time of leaving Cuba and reaching the North American continent, the system should have intensified enough to be considered a major hurricane. Moreover, Ian should become a category 4 hurricane. Gusts could reach 225 km / h in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. If those predictions hold true, Ian would be September’s strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005.
The uncertainty remains as to whether it will keep this same strength when it hits Florida. But the National Hurricane Center still issued a warning about its arrival and urged residents of the Sunshine State to prepare. On Saturday, a statewide state of emergency was declared in Florida. Heavy rain is also expected in Florida. The remnants of Ian may also be heading to Quebec by early October. It is still too early to know how much the province will be impacted.
A late arrival
Statistically, the tropical season reaches its peak around September 10 in the Atlantic basin. Moreover, on average, the first major hurricane makes an appearance on September 1st.
But currently, there are two thriving storms: Gaston and Ian — which would become the second major hurricane — as well as the remnants of Fiona. What is more, a depression is also perceptible on the radars. If it gains strength, it could become the tenth system named Julia. Autumn will therefore not take place under the sign of tranquility for the Atlantic basin…