As the average price of a gallon of gasoline reaches $4.36 in the United States, President Donald Trump has deflected blame away from the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, pointing instead toward Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and refinery closures in Democratic-led American states, as Al Jazeera reported.
The national average at the pump sits significantly higher than the $2.98 recorded on February 28, when military action against Iran first commenced. That conflict immediately choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint normally carrying one-fifth of global oil supplies. Yet, in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, the 80-year-old president argued that international transit through the strait is recovering, shifting the focus elsewhere.
“What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats,” Trump stated.
Contrasting Supply Pressures in Washington and the Persian Gulf
While the administration attempts to distance domestic fuel costs from its military campaign in the Middle East, energy analysts paint a starkly different picture of global supply chains. According to data tracked by the American Automobile Association, consumers are paying over a dollar extra per gallon compared to when Trump returned to office last year, with states like Alaska seeing prices climb past $5.
The New York Times noted that tanker operators continue to charge higher fees for crossing the Strait of Hormuz, while vessel insurance costs have soared due to the lingering threat of Iranian retaliation. Meanwhile, data from ship-tracking firm Kpler cited by Al Jazeera indicates that while crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on isolated days, underlying market volatility and damaged regional infrastructure maintain severe upward pressure on global prices.
At the same time, Ukraine’s systematic campaign against Russian energy facilities has intensified diesel and gasoil shortages. According to the Kyiv Independent, the KSE institute estimates that Persian Gulf exports fell by 152 million barrels between March and August, dwarfing a 68-million-barrel drop in Russian exports during the same period. Luke Wickenden of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air pointed out that Russian exports are down by a third, accounting for roughly 4% of the world’s seaborne diesel and gasoil trade.
Domestic Refineries and Political Fallout Ahead of Midterms
Domestically, the White House has highlighted refining cuts in Democratic-led states, specifically pointing to California, where two refineries have shut down over the past year.
However, industry analysts emphasize that the vast majority of U.S. refining capacity is concentrated in Republican-controlled states like Texas and Louisiana, meaning California’s closures do not account for the nationwide price surge. Reuters reported that the political rhetoric comes as the administration faces intense public scrutiny ahead of consequential midterm elections.
Public opinion polling reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the administration’s economic management. A recent AP-NORC poll revealed that 65 percent of Americans blame Trump’s policies for higher prices, while 61 percent believe the broader U.S. economy has deteriorated since he took office.
| Factor Driving Fuel Prices | Primary Region / Source | Reported Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| U.S.-Iran Conflict | Strait of Hormuz / Middle East | Severe supply bottlenecks and high shipping insurance costs |
| Ukrainian Drone Strikes | Russian Refineries | Reduction of global diesel and gasoil seaborne trade by roughly 4% |
| State Refining Cuts | California (Democratic-led) | Two refineries shut down over the past year |
Trump Urges Ukraine to Scale Back Refinery Strikes
On the diplomatic front regarding Eastern Europe, Trump revealed that he urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to scale back strikes on Russian oil refineries during their meeting in New York at the United Nations General Assembly. A Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Kyiv would consider an energy ceasefire only if Moscow agrees to halt its own systematic attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, leaving any formal agreement unconfirmed as winter approaches.
