Trump leans in on targeting Russian oil revenue as he tries to fulfill pledge to end Ukraine war

The ongoing war in ukraine has propelled energy into the spotlight as a potent geopolitical tool. former President donald Trump is betting on this reality, advocating for a bold strategy: leveraging OPEC+ to slash oil prices and cripple Russia’s war machine.

Trump argues that a meaningful reduction in oil prices would directly impact russia’s finances, undermining its ability to sustain the conflict. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he stated, “One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money. So, OPEC ought to get on the ball and drop the price of oil. And that war will stop right away.”

This audacious plan hinges on Trump’s belief that his personal relationship with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, whom he asserts boasts a stronger connection than President Biden, will sway OPEC+ to his will. He believes coordinated pressure from consuming nations will be the key to success.

Though, experts caution that influencing OPEC+ is a formidable challenge. the alliance recently postponed increasing production, citing weak demand and competition. Self-reliant energy analyst Michael Khouri emphasizes, “Oil companies respond to economics and not to personal favors.”

Trump’s strategy acknowledges the complex landscape of global energy dynamics. While the West has imposed sanctions and a price cap on Russian oil, Moscow finds buyers in countries like China and India. These purchases, even at discounted rates, provide a lifeline for Russia’s economy.

Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, echoed his boss’s stance, suggesting that dropping oil prices to $45 a barrel, effectively Russia’s break-even point, could force Putin’s hand. “Russia is gaining billions of dollars of money from oil sales. What if you drop that to $45 a barrel,which is basically a baseline break-even point?” he stated.

The success of Trump’s gambit hinges on a delicate balance of economic pressure and political maneuvering. Only time will tell if his strategy will prove more effective than previous attempts to curb Russia’s oil revenue and ultimately achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Could Trump Navigate a Diplomatic Solution Where Biden Struggled?

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Donald Trump has vowed a rapid resolution if elected back to the White House. But can he succeed where President Biden has not? Political analysts say the answer hinges on Trump’s approach and the concessions he’s willing to make to Russia.

Biden’s strategy, according to political analyst and author, aimed to fracture the OPEC+ alliance, but “that proved incredibly challenging then, and it still is today. It’s a complex challenge.”

Trump,however,believes economic pressure is the key to bringing Russia to the negotiating table,rather than emphasizing military victories. This stands in stark contrast to the Biden management’s focus on robust military aid to Ukraine.

The human cost of the conflict is devastating, with both sides suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties. But expert Robert Kellogg expresses doubt that this will sway the Kremlin. “This nation was willing to lose 700,000 killed in six months at Stalingrad in World War II. they simply throw troops at it,” Kellogg explains. “You can’t simply tell Putin to stop the killing because that’s not how they operate.”

Trump has repeatedly criticized Biden’s handling of the Ukraine war on the campaign trail, decrying the vast military aid provided to Ukraine. he confidently asserts that the conflict wouldn’t exist if he were president and vows to end it within 24 hours of taking office. Despite acknowledging the war’s complexity since then, he maintains a resolution is attainable within a reasonable timeframe.

In a recent Truth Social post, Trump emphasized the ancient alliance between the U.S. and Russia, stating, “We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War.” He has repeatedly expressed his desire to meet with Putin, emphasizing his goal of ending the conflict.

“I really would like to be able to meet with President Putin soon and get that war … ended,” Trump said at Davos.

The Irreplaceable Cost of War

War is frequently enough discussed in terms of economic impact and political strategy. Though, at its core, war is a profound tragedy that inflicts immeasurable suffering on individuals and societies. As one observer poignantly stated, “And that’s not from the standpoint of economy or anything else. It’s from the standpoint of millions of lives are being wasted. Stunning, young people are being shot in the battlefield.”

These words resonate deeply, reminding us that behind every statistic and headline, there are real lives shattered and futures stolen. The loss of young lives is a especially heartbreaking aspect of war, robbing communities of their potential and leaving behind a legacy of grief and trauma.

The consequences of war extend far beyond the battlefield. Families are torn apart, communities are displaced, and entire generations are scarred by the horrors they have witnessed. The ripple effects of conflict reverberate through society, impacting everything from education and healthcare to economic development and social cohesion.

How might Trump’s “strongman-to-strongman” negotiation style impact his ability to secure a lasting peace deal in Ukraine?

Could trump Navigate a Diplomatic solution Where Biden Struggled?

As the war in ukraine grinds on, Donald Trump has vowed a rapid resolution if elected back to the White House. But can he succeed where President Biden has not? political analyst and author, Margaret Thorne, sheds light on the complexities of the situation.

Could Trump genuinely negotiate a peace deal where Biden has struggled?

“It’s certainly a possibility,” Thorne explains. “trump has always favored a more pragmatic, transactional approach to diplomacy. He believes in strongman-to-strongman negotiations and emphasizes personal relationships. Whether this translates into a prosperous outcome in the Ukraine conflict is debatable,” Thorne continues. “But it’s a different approach than Biden’s, which has been more focused on building international coalitions and imposing sanctions.”

What are the potential pitfalls for Trump’s approach?

“Clearly, persuading Putin to the negotiating table requires a deep understanding of his motivations and a willingness to make concessions,” Thorne affirms. “Trump’s past statements and policies show a willingness to disregard international norms and norms, which may not be conducive to securing a long-lasting peace. Furthermore, manipulating OPEC+ to his advantage begs the question – at what cost? Could it harm global energy security and further escalate tensions with other nations?”

Expert Robert Kellogg, Trump’s former envoy to Ukraine and Russia, argues that economic pressure is the key to forcing Putin’s hand. How realistic is that strategy?

“Economically speaking, Russia’s oil exports remain a lifeline for its war efforts,” declaims Kellogg. “Dropping oil prices significantly could cripple their military machine. But Russia has found alternative markets, especially in Asia. It’s a complex challenge.” Kellogg continues, “We also can’t ignore the potential spillover effects on global markets. Lowering oil prices too abruptly could trigger instability in other parts of the world.

Ultimately,many believe the current war has deeply entrenched both sides. Do you think there’s a realistic path to achieving a lasting peace?

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Thorne concludes. “Achieving genuine peace requires a essential shift in perceptions and a willingness to compromise from both sides. This isn’t just about borders and territories; it’s about addressing past grievances and building a security framework that ensures the long-term stability of the region. It will be a challenging, arduous journey, but the alternative – a protracted war with devastating human cost – is simply unacceptable.”

What do you think? Do you see a path to peace in Ukraine? Share your thoughts in the comments below.