The alarms are on against a possible recession in the United States next year, according to different experts, a situation that could have repercussions in Colombia.
The increase in the cost of living and the consequent rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, as well as the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, generate pressure on the US economy and increase the risks of reaching a technical recession in said country.
Following this line, experts assure that the situation could have a negative impact in Colombia, although not immediately. However, the main concern is the effect that this uncertainty may have on the consolidated economic recovery that the country has shown.
Felipe Campos, manager of Investment and Research at Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria, explained to Colprensa that “there is talk of a recession in the United States because it will meet the most basic definition of growing two negative quarters in a row, under a very strict definition of them “.
Several economic indicators can be affected by this scourge. According to the specialists’ projections, the value of Colombian exports could fall under a scenario of recession in the US, especially due to the possibility of falling oil prices.
“The main product that the United States buys from us is oil. And we have already seen that only with the threat of the expectation of a recession, the price of oil fell sharply”, explained Munir Jalil, chief economist for the Andean Region of BTG Pactual to the media.
On the other hand, in the face of foreign investment, Colombia would also see negative effects. Experts suggest that if the United States weakens, being the country’s main trading partner, investors would stop placing their capital in Colombia, given the risk that the national economy will also slow down.
“The risk appetite of portfolio investors can also be affected. Talking about a recession internationally can affect the arrival of dollars in the Colombian economy and that affects both imports and domestic demand, and can slow down the good times that are passing the national economy,” said Sergio Olarte, an economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.
In addition, the inflow of remittances from Colombian workers residing in the United States could decrease.
According to analysts, it is feasible that the first impacts of a possible recession may be reflected in the second half of this year, especially in terms of oil and the dollar. It should be remembered that this week the greenback hit its highest price in history.