[뉴욕=이데일리 김정남 특파원] A warning has been issued that the average global economic growth rate will drop to 2.2% by 2030. If labor productivity is not raised, a lost decade could come.
The World Bank (WB) published a report on the 27th (local time) and estimated the global average potential growth rate from 2022 to 2030 at 2.2%. The potential growth rate refers to the maximum output growth rate that can be achieved without causing inflation while maximizing production factors such as labor and capital. Simply put, it is the economic strength of a country.
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WB’s estimates are lower than those for 2000-2010 (3.5%) and 2011-2021 (2.6%). This means that the global economy will lose stamina for about 10 years until 2030. In the case of developed countries, the WB estimates that it will fall to 1.2% between 2022 and 2030. The downward trend is expected to continue from 2000 to 2010 (2.2%) and from 2011 to 2021 (1.4%). Emerging countries are projected to fall from 5.0% in the previous decade to 4.0% in the next decade. This means that it will show the slowest growth rate in the last 30 years.
What WB picked as the biggest variable is productivity. “Increase in productivity and incomes, as well as declining inflation, have helped one in four emerging economies reach high-income status over the past 30 years, but they are now retreating,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at WB. It has a lot of potential to grow,” he said. His warning is that if things go on like this, we will face a lost decade in the future.
In particular, he predicted that the growth rate of investment between 2022 and 2024 would be only half that of the previous 20 years, while international trade would grow much more slowly. “Policies that provide incentives, increase productivity and accelerate investment can reverse the trend,” said Gill. “Authorities should prioritize containing inflation, ensuring financial stability and reducing debt,” he added.