Washington’s push to economically asphyxiate Iran through aggressive sanctions and a naval blockade has backfired, fueling a surge of defiant nationalism rather than the expected regime collapse.
The Trump administration entered this phase of the conflict carrying a dismal record regarding Iran, having failed to break the Islamic Republic’s will through either prolonged bombing campaigns or diplomatic maneuvering. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on September 1 that Washington intended to economically asphyxiate the regime, keeping fresh sanctions active alongside an ongoing blockade of the southern coast. Yet, rather than capitulating, Tehran believes its military actions—including strikes on American bases and the disruption of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—will ultimately force Washington to abandon its containment policy and lift economic restrictions.
Nationalist Backlash and the Failure of Coercive Strategy
The military strategy deployed by the United States and Israel inflicted heavy damage on Iranian infrastructure, spiking unemployment and pushing more citizens into poverty. However, the anticipated mass anti-government uprisings failed to materialize following the death of Ali Khamenei. Instead, the assassination triggered nightly demonstrations by ardent supporters in major cities, quickly drawing in citizens from diverse political backgrounds who rallied in defense of their homeland. Long-exiled cultural figures and journalists, including singers Mohsen Namjoo and Bijan Mortazavi, even returned to the country as the conflict deepened.
This nationalist wave does not translate into a blanket endorsement of the ruling system, but rather reflects a profound hardening of public sentiment against foreign aggression. Years of skepticism regarding state warnings about American intentions dissolved under the weight of destructive bombings and threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to annihilate the country’s civilization. Dissidents who spent years imprisoned for protesting the regime have openly expressed disillusionment with American promises, concluding that Washington demands total submission rather than freedom or democracy. Millions subsequently flooded the streets for Khamenei’s July funeral procession, waving red flags that symbolized a widespread desire for vengeance and setting the stage for renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Internal resilience has further insulated the regime from external pressure. Over the past 15 years, Iran engineered an economy specifically structured to withstand American economic warfare, forging strong trade ties with neighbors and achieving near self-sufficiency in food production. While inflation remains high and residents face financial anxiety, cities across the country have avoided critical shortages of essential goods, blunting the intended impact of Washington’s financial blockade.
Hard-Liners Consolidate Power as Moderates Reject Surrender
Within the Iranian government, power has decisively shifted toward hard-line factions determined to exact a heavy price for any foreign provocation. Under the country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, key security roles have been handed to trusted figures tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, such as national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei and domestic paramilitary commander Hossein Taeb. This leadership echelon remains deeply skeptical of diplomacy, pointing to past instances where the United States launched attacks amid ongoing negotiations and walked away from a memorandum of understanding signed in June.
Even Iran’s relative moderates, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former President Hasan Rouhani, and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, share the fundamental stance that the country must not surrender.
Believing that President Trump is unready for genuine diplomatic engagement unless the costs of the conflict escalate, Tehran has pursued an unrestrained and disproportionate military response. Repeated strikes on American assets in Jordan, Syria, and across the Persian Gulf have already forced the United States to shift operations to Israel and Jordan and relocate B-1 bombers from a British base. Simultaneously, Iran is pressuring Gulf Arab states to expel U.S. military forces, aiming to dismantle the regional security umbrella and permanently alter the geopolitical footprint of the West in the Middle East.
