Surging global investment in artificial intelligence has propelled a stronger-than-expected recovery in international goods trade, prompting the World Trade Organization to raise its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9 per cent despite ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
World Trade Organization Doubles 2026 Merchandise Growth Outlook
The Geneva-based international trade body has more than doubled its annual merchandise trade projection from its March estimate of 1.9 per cent up to 3.9 per cent for 2026. According to the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, physical trade volumes expanded by 3.5 per cent during the first half of the year, outperforming earlier expectations as supply chains adapted to severe transport and energy shocks.
Global gross domestic product is projected to expand 2.6 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent next year. Trade growth is expected to accelerate slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2027, provided regional conflicts see a timely resolution. While goods trade rebounded vigorously, the outlook for commercial services trade volume growth was revised down to 3.3 per cent from 4.8 per cent due to conflict-related pressures on international transport and travel.
World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the latest figures showed trade resilience in action while cautioning that the benefits have been uneven. WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill told a press conference that while the system has proven resilient, that does not necessarily mean it is strong.
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Drives Nearly Half of All Goods Expansion
The primary engine behind the upward revision is an acceleration in demand for high-tech digital hardware. Trade in AI-enabling products—including semiconductors and servers—accounted for 47 per cent of global merchandise trade growth during the first half of 2026.
Trade in these specialized goods surged 67 per cent year-on-year, following prior expansions of 16 per cent in 2024 and 31 per cent in 2025. That trajectory nearly doubled the sector’s share of world merchandise trade from 8 per cent up to 14.8 per cent.
Global spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure is on track to increase by at least 30 per cent this year, with market projections pointing toward an additional 10 to 20 per cent expansion in 2027.
Regional Disparities and Middle East Energy Shocks Shape Trade
Asia is forecast to record the fastest merchandise export growth at 9.9 per cent this year, contributing 4.0 percentage points to the global 3.9 per cent increase—effectively accounting for more than 100 per cent of total worldwide growth once contracting regions are factored in. East Asian economies supply over half of global AI-enabling exports, while Southeast Asia provides roughly another quarter.
Trade across the rest of the world combined faces a slight overall decline. European exports are projected to edge down 0.1 per cent, and Middle Eastern exports are expected to plunge 17.2 per cent. The Middle East conflict severely impacted energy corridors: crude oil exports from the region dropped about 24 per cent in the first half of the year, while liquefied natural gas exports plummeted 47 per cent. Alternative suppliers and strategic reserve releases limited the net global decline to around 6 per cent for crude oil and just 1 per cent for LNG.
Additional market metrics from the period show spot rates for container shipments from Asia to North America standing at about US$6,200 to US$8,000 per 40-foot container by the end of June, while shipments to Europe and the Mediterranean registered at US$4,900 to US$6,500. Gas prices in Europe exceeded US$21 per million British thermal units, marking the highest level seen since 2022. The global inflation forecast for 2026 was simultaneously raised from 3.7 per cent to 4.7 per cent.
