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There are only forty days left until the end of President Michel Aoun’s term, which is no longer sufficient to form a new government, even if all intentions are clear. After agreeing to amend some names and portfolios, whether the request of the 6 state ministers was approved or not, they must formulate their ministerial statement, and then gain confidence in Parliament, if they obtain it, and all this requires time… That is why some saw that the solution is By “floating” the current government, but by new decrees, as long as the ministers themselves will remain in their ministries, in order to be able to be “full of descriptions,” and thus assume the powers of the President of the Republic, in the event of a vacancy that begins on the first of next November, if it is not The House of Representatives is able to elect the new president.
So, the initial solution, according to informed political sources, is to float the current caretaker government, so that it becomes legitimate and is no longer considered resigned until after the election of the new president, and for whom it seems that the “flotation” is without many obstacles. The survival of the current ministers who won the confidence of the previous parliament, will be rejected by the new parliament, in which there is no longer an established majority for any political party, and the number of “changeable” and “independent” MPs who will not inevitably agree to the return of the ministers themselves will increase, because this means that the elections The last legislature did not happen. Also, some blocs refuse to participate in the government, especially the Free Patriotic Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party, which is why the change affected their ministers in the draft of the new government that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati submitted to President Aoun.
And if Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called for a plenary session to study and discuss the 2022 budget, on September 14, 15 and 16, and that Aoun and Mikati will participate in the United Nations General Assembly in New York on the 20th, this means, according to the sources, that officials and MPs will During the next two weeks, they will be preoccupied with many matters other than the government and the election of the president. It also indicates, therefore, that there will be no call for Parliament to give the new government confidence or withhold it from it, if it is formed within days, nor to elect the new president of the republic during this September.
In the opinion of the sources, the radical solution would be to go next October, before the constitutional deadline for electing a new president expires, to internal consensus on the name of the successor president to President Aoun, despite the difficulty of this matter due to the clear disagreement over the specifications of the next president, as well as the names, and the lack of agreement on one character. The sources expressed their fear that the failure to reach a new nuclear agreement between America and Iran, on what the Israeli enemy seeks and wants, would negatively reflect on the presidential elections in Lebanon, and lead to a vacancy that might threaten chaos at various levels. This chaos, which may last for about a year or more, leads to the continuation of a dramatic economic, financial and living collapse, in light of the failure of officials to take any quick solutions to the problems and suffering of the Lebanese.
With regard to the demarcation of the southern maritime border, if the American mediator in the indirect negotiations, Amos Hochstein, returns to Lebanon today, Friday, as he is promoting, coming from Paris, and before heading later to “Tel Aviv”, the same sources say that President Aoun hopes that the demarcation agreement will be completed. And signing it during his reign, but with things going as required for Lebanon to obtain all of its rights to its marine wealth, especially the entire Qana field, without giving the Israeli enemy any part of Block 8 in exchange for giving up the southern part of Qana. . The latter, which inevitably enters into Lebanon’s quota, if it resorted, or could resort to later in the event of the “Israeli” remaining intransigent and stubborn, to adopt Line 29, as its maritime border line by amending Decree 6433. Then, the northern section of the Karish field becomes. Which amounts to more than half of its share as well, and it can then be given up to the “Israeli” in exchange for an allowance or financial compensation, or anything else, so that there are no common fields between Lebanon and it.
Lebanon is awaiting what Hochstein will present to it today from a new “Israeli” proposal, the sources added, regarding compensation for the southern part of the “Qana” field, in the event that the enemy agreed to give Lebanon the 23rd line and the “Qana” field, provided that negotiations take place On the section beyond this line. Either a part of Block 8 will be given in return, and this matter has previously been rejected by Lebanon, or compensation will be paid for it by a third party that enters the oil settlement line, which may be the State of Qatar. The agreement between the two sides requires guarantees, and Qatar or France may play this role, or any other country that has the confidence of both parties, in order to manage the issue of distributing revenues in areas that go beyond the agreed line. However, it is necessary to know what the US mediator will convey to the Lebanese officials during his quick visit today, to build on what is needed, especially since everyone is talking about the “Israeli” wanting to postpone the signing of the agreement until after the Knesset elections on the 1st of November.