At the WTA 1000 China Open in Beijing, world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka crashed out in the third round following a 4-6, 3-6 defeat to 20-year-old Czech Nikola Bartunková on October 4. This stunning upset arrived just a day after world No. 1 Elena Rybakina was eliminated, completely clearing the tournament draw of its top two seeds.
How Bartunková Neutralized Sabalenka’s Service Game
During her 6-1, 6-3 second-round victory over Renata Zarazúa, Sabalenka hammered 11 aces, committed zero double faults, and converted an elite 88 percent of points on her first serve. But the tape against Bartunková told a completely different story. Sabalenka managed just four aces and saw her first-serve points-won percentage plummet to 53 percent.
Bartunková capitalized ruthlessly on these tactical vulnerabilities. Despite posting a modest 48 percent first-serve success rate overall, the 20-year-old Czech dialed it in under pressure, winning 83 percent of those first-serve points. More critically, Bartunková defended her own service games with absolute authority, successfully fending off five break-point vulnerabilities during a tense 3-2 game in the opening set. By granting zero service breaks across the entire match, Bartunková completely neutralized Sabalenka’s power game.
| Match Metric | vs. Renata Zarazúa (2nd Round) | vs. Nikola Bartunkova (3rd Round) |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 4 |
| Double Faults | 0 | Unspecified |
| First Serve Win % | 88% | 53% |
| Breaks Conceded | 0 | 3 |
| Result | Win (6-1, 6-3) | Loss (4-6, 3-6) |
A Growing Mental and Tactical Trend in the Second Half
Sabalenka has now dropped six consecutive matches dating back to June whenever she surrenders the opening set. While past seasons showcased her resilience in mounting tactical comebacks, her inability to overturn early deficits has plagued her late-season schedule.
Coincidentally, that exact vulnerability traces back to her previous encounter with Bartunková in June. This time, however, the young Czech prodigy refused to let the door open for a comeback.
The Rise of Czech Tennis and What Lies Ahead
For Bartunková, this victory accelerates a breakout campaign that began in January when she played the Australian Open ranked No. 126 and reached the third round by defeating Daria Kasatkina and Belinda Bencic. Carrying that momentum through solid runs at Wimbledon, the US Open, and a recent semifinal appearance at the WTA 500 Monterrey Open, she climbed to No. 34 in the world rankings.
With world No. 1 Elena Rybakina already eliminated on October 3 and Sabalenka following her out on October 4, the Beijing draw is wide open. Bartunková advances to face Austria’s Sinja Kraus, ranked No. 95, whom she defeated in their previous meeting last year. A victory over Kraus will cement Bartunková’s ascent into the WTA top 30, crowning a remarkable week of upsets at the China Open.
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