San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper enters his second NBA season as the betting favorite to win the 2026-27 Most Improved Player award, commanding +900 odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. However, historical voting tendencies show that second-year players face steep skepticism from voters, opening the door for established veterans and wing scorers like Charlotte’s Brandon Miller and Boston’s Payton Pritchard.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Dylan Harper (+900): High-usage favorite, though historical voter hesitation toward second-year high draft picks makes him a volatile futures ticket.
- Brandon Miller (+1100): Primed for an expanded offensive load following LaMelo Ball’s departure to Minnesota, presenting a viable path to an All-Star berth.
- Walker Kessler (+2200): Poised for efficient rim-rolling production and defensive anchor stats alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves in Los Angeles.
The Second-Year Voting Barrier Facing Dylan Harper
Predicting the NBA’s Most Improved Player award remains an exercise in capturing unexpected breakouts rather than tracking predictable career arcs. San Antonio’s Dylan Harper leads the early market at +900 despite playing just his second professional season after going No. 2 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. But the ballot history tells a cautious tale for historical contenders. Houston’s Amen Thompson saw his MIP campaign stall during the 2025-26 season, proving that preseason expectations carry little weight once tip-offs begin.
Dylan Harper for most improved
Voters routinely bypass second-year athletes because incremental growth is naturally expected from high lottery picks. Recent history reinforces this trend. Since the 2019-20 campaign, winners like Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen, and Tyrese Maxey secured the honor by pairing their breakout jumps with maiden All-Star selections. Meanwhile, recent recipients Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker claimed the award after receiving bigger roles rather than immediate rookie stardom.
Evaluating the Top Contenders and Roster Shifts
Behind Harper sit Boston’s Payton Pritchard, Charlotte’s Brandon Miller, and Detroit’s Ausar Thompson at the top of the DraftKings odds board. Pritchard enters the current campaign with a significantly elevated offensive ceiling following Jaylen Brown’s departure to Philadelphia. Further down the board at +2000, Oklahoma City’s Cason Wallace steps into a guaranteed starting assignment in a contract year following offseason trades involving Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe.
| Player | Team | Odds | Key Roster Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | San Antonio Spurs | +900 | Entering year two as primary focal point |
| Payton Pritchard | Boston Celtics | +1100 | Expanded minutes following Jaylen Brown exit |
| Brandon Miller | Charlotte Hornets | +1100 | Primary option with LaMelo Ball traded |
| Walker Kessler | Los Angeles Lakers | +2200 | Partnering with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves |
Alexander-Walker’s trajectory in Atlanta stands as the modern blueprint for the award. After functioning as a secondary piece in Minnesota, he seized an expanded role with the Hawks, posting a career-high 20.8 points per game while converting 39.9 percent from beyond the arc. That leap secured Atlanta the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and validated the front office’s roster construction.
Long-Shot Value and Frontcourt Opportunities
For bettors looking past the favorites, Los Angeles Lakers center Walker Kessler offers intriguing upside at +2200. Limited to just five appearances during his fourth campaign due to injury, Kessler’s path to the award relies heavily on durability coupled with elite playmaking. Operating alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves guarantees a steady diet of uncontested looks at the rim, supplementing his career average of 2.4 blocks per game.
Brandon Miller represents the safest wager among the top tier, priced at +1100. Charlotte’s competitive stabilization last season coincided directly with his return from injury. With LaMelo Ball now in Minnesota, Miller assumes the undisputed primary option mantle in Charlotte. If his efficiency holds after averaging 20.2 points and 38.3 percent from deep in his third year, a push toward 23 or 24 points per contest will firmly insert him into both the MIP and All-Star conversations.
Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
