Brazil faces a presidential runoff on October 25, after Flávio Bolsonaro outpolled incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round with 47 percent of the vote to Lula’s 45 percent. With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro led with about 56 million votes to Lula’s 44.9 percent, though neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright (Al Jazeera).
The surprise first-round result exceeded poll projections, with Bolsonaro securing nearly four percentage points more than his father, former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, did in the first round four years ago (CNN). Together, Lula and Bolsonaro accounted for more than 92 percent of the votes (CNN).
Bolsonaro Family Wins Every Contested Seat
The Bolsonaro family won every seat they contested across multiple states (News24). Michelle Bolsonaro, the 44-year-old wife of Jair Bolsonaro, topped the Senate vote in the capital Brasilia’s Federal District (News24), with commentators believing she is eyeing a presidential bid of her own in 2030 (News24).
This conservative-dominated Congress ensures that even if Lula is re-elected, he will face a tough time pushing policies through the legislative chambers (News24).
Flávio Bolsonaro Wins Key Southeast States
The crucial battleground in the first round was the Southeast, where nearly 40 percent of the electorate lives (CNN). Flávio Bolsonaro won São Paulo and Minas Gerais (CNN). His victory in Minas Gerais carried symbolic weight, as the state has voted for the winner in every presidential election since direct voting resumed in 1989 (CNN). Meanwhile, Lula received 43.21 percent in Minas Gerais, which was well below the 48.3 percent he won there in the first round in 2022 (CNN).
Political analysts noted that Bolsonaro may have benefited from protest votes (Al Jazeera). On Sunday, Bolsonaro said the results showed that Brazilians want change (Al Jazeera). Political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters that The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off
(Al Jazeera). With the upcoming October 25 runoff, the race centers on voters who backed one of the other 10 eliminated candidates in the first round (Al Jazeera), alongside whether either side can mobilize Brazilians who stayed home on Sunday (CNN). Candidates Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, have stated they will not endorse either candidate in the run-off (Al Jazeera).
