Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Thursday that the United States is trying to break Canada so it can “own us,” as he urged oil-rich Alberta not to begin a process toward separation in Monday’s referendum. Speaking before a crowd of approximately 5,000 attendees at the BMO Centre in Calgary, Carney framed the political pressure from Washington as a threat to Canadian sovereignty.
The Stakes of the Alberta Referendum
The vote facing Alberta is not a direct referendum on independence. Instead, the province—which holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves—will decide whether to remain a province or instruct the government to begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
Mark Carney and the limits of defying Donald Trump https://t.co/h4H7kSxj1v
Carney forcefully pushed back against using the ballot box as a messaging tool against Ottawa. “Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” Carney stated during the Forever Canadian rally. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”
Economic Shifts and U.S. Trade Pressures
Amid an ongoing trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump and his repeated threats to make Canada the 51st U.S. state, Carney has pivoted from some of the policies of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. He fast-tracked a proposed new oil pipeline to the Pacific and called Canada an energy superpower.
During his address, Carney noted that the Pacific Link pipeline would generate revenue for social programs and create more than 140,000 jobs, while reducing the country’s dependence on the United States. The pivot has yielded political dividends. Polling data from the CBC indicates that the Liberal Party went from 20% to 42.8% in the polls between Trudeau’s resignation on Jan. 6, 2025, and a federal election on April 28, 2025, driven by Carney’s message of defiance in the face of Trump.
Divided Reactions on the Ground
Despite Carney’s popularity in Alberta—which McGill University political science professor Daniel Beland called “highly unusual” for a Liberal prime minister, noting Carney has benefited from a “Trump effect” that has rallied Canadians around their leader—separatist leaders remain unpersuaded. Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, acknowledged Carney’s formidable political presence but argued his agreements with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith amount to “pinky promises” that do not resolve long-standing grievances with Ottawa.
Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who cast her ballot while supporting the province’s continued place within Canada, has said support for separation remains too high for her liking. As voters head to the polls, the convergence of economic nationalism, western alienation, and pressure from the southern border sets the stage for a pivotal moment in Canadian federalism.
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