Taiwan stocks fell 1,101 points in April, and continued to be pressured by short, medium and long-term moving averages. The traditional “5 poor” is about to be ushered in, but US stocks plummeted again last Friday. The legal person pointed out that after the Labor Day holiday, Taiwan stocks 5 The start of the month is likely to continue to be overshadowed by international bearishness, but from the perspective of the price-earnings ratio, Taiwan stocks are close to reasonable value, and there is an opportunity for a rebound from the bottom technically. .
In April, foreign capital slashed nearly 260 billion yuan in the concentrated market. Among them, TSMC was sold for 108.8 billion yuan, MediaTek was sold for nearly 39 billion yuan, Yuanta Taiwan was sold for 5.0177 billion yuan, UMC exceeded 15 billion yuan, and both Hon Hai and Xinxing exceeded 15 billion yuan. 9 billion yuan, nearly 7 billion yuan from ASE, and more than 5 billion yuan from Shin Kong Gold, Asus and Realtek.
Judging from the number of sheets, Shin Kong Gold, UMC, TSMC, Taiwan Enterprise Bank, Compal, and Yuanta Taiwan 50 were most sold by foreign investors in April.
Entering the first week of May, the legal person reminded that as the Federal Reserve will announce a new wave of interest rate hike plans, and domestic listed cabinet companies have successively announced their April revenue, there may be many big manufacturers whose performance will be blocked by China. To control the impact of the policy, in addition to the technical rebound, it is still difficult to see the incentives of the news. Therefore, it is still necessary to cautiously wait for an opportunity.
Yongfeng Investment Consulting further analyzed that the market expects that the Fed will raise interest rates by 2 yards in May and 3 yards in June. The implied interest rate at the end of the year will be higher than the original estimate of 2.5%, reaching above 2.75%.
On the other hand, as the epidemic in Shanghai has spread to Suzhou, this affected the revenue performance of electronics stocks in April, making technology stocks even worse.
According to the historical experience of interest rate hikes in the past, the stock market had a low ebb for about 6 months before and after the U.S. interest rate hike. For example, in the initial stage of interest rate hikes from 2004 to 2006, the market was afraid. profit growth,S&P500 Start to rise, and once the CPI falls from the high point and the interest rate hike is coming to an end, the stock market will start to go longer.
Yongfeng Investment Consultants emphasized that, looking at the time, the initial rate hike, the stock market ranks the lowest, as long as GDP is growing, it will still be upward in the long run, and if the CPI falls to 3%, the rate hike will stop, so it can be said that the current situation is It is at the lowest stage of the stock market ranking.
From a PE ratio perspective, amid a string of bearish panics,S&P500 The index fell below the annual line,Philadelphia SemiconductorAnd the Nasdaq index fell to near the 2-year line,S&P500 The index price-earnings ratio is close to the global outbreak of 2020,half feeThe index price-earnings ratio is close to the 2013-2021 average low of 16.1 times, gradually approaching a reasonable level.
As for Taiwan stocks, if corporate profits in 2015 only increased by single digits and there was a recession in the second half of the year, and the PE was at a minimum of 11.9 at that time, it is conservatively estimated that the low point of the broader market in this wave will be 16255 points, which is also close to a reasonable value. .