Less than one-quarter of Albertans support proceeding to a binding vote on separation, according to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, suggesting that an independent Alberta remains an unlikely prospect as voters head to the polls on Oct. 19, 2026. Seven in 10 residents plan to vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, holding steady from previous polling conducted in September.
What the Numbers Reveal About Separation and the Status Quo
The online survey of 801 Albertans, conducted between Oct. 13 and 16, found that support for beginning the legal process of holding a binding referendum on separation ticked up three percentage points from September to reach 23 per cent. That backing is highest among men at 27 per cent, residents aged 35 to 54 at 27 per cent, and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton at 29 per cent. Only five per cent of voters remain undecided, while two per cent say they will not vote.
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, noted that even if every undecided or abstaining voter chose to support separation on referendum day, the tally would still fall short of triggering a genuine break from the country. However, Bricker emphasized that the quarter of the population leaning toward separation represents a sizeable block driven largely by general dissatisfaction with Ottawa. What we’re seeing is that the status quo relationship with the rest of the country is not something that’s particularly popular in Alberta at the moment,
Bricker told Global News. They don’t see the solution to that status quo situation as being separating from the country.
Broader Ballot Questions and the Push for Leverage
Premier Danielle Smith has urged Albertans to vote yes to the first nine questions to secure greater leverage in negotiations with the federal government. Polling indicates those non-binding policy and constitutional questions may well secure majorities on election night.
Data from a Canada Pulse Insights survey released by CityNews Calgary shows that majorities in both Calgary and Edmonton support measures such as requiring proof of citizenship to vote and increasing provincial control over immigration. At the same time, separate findings from the Angus Reid Institute reveal that 60 per cent of those supporting Option 2—the path toward a separation vote—are motivated primarily by a desire to send a message to Ottawa rather than an active desire to separate.
Deep-Seated Frustrations and the Post-Referendum Horizon
The roots of this political friction extend far back into the province’s history. As explored by The Globe and Mail, Alberta political dynamics have long relied on casting provincial governments as defenders against external federal elites. Meanwhile, voters interviewed by CTV News pointed to structural imbalances in institutions like the Senate—where Atlantic Canada holds 30 seats compared to Alberta’s six—as fuel for ongoing regional alienation.
Despite Premier Smith stating that she expects everyone to accept the results and move on if the vote goes as polling suggests, three in five Albertans believe the separatist movement will never truly end, regardless of Monday’s outcome. As the province prepares to vote on a referendum that has once again placed Canada’s confederation under a sharp regional microscope, Global News has planned comprehensive broadcast and streaming coverage.
