As the November 3, 2026, midterm elections approach following 20 months of dizzying policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, the ongoing war in Iran is challenging the conventional political wisdom that foreign policy remains a secondary concern for American voters. While the economy usually dominates voter priorities—with a Pew Research Center poll showing 29% of registered voters calling the economy their top issue compared to just 4% for foreign policy—international conflicts and trade actions are driving everyday financial anxieties this cycle.
According to Chicago Council on Global Affairs polling fielded between July 10 and 21, 2026, international issues have claimed a prominent place in the minds of voters hit by high energy costs and shifting trade rules.
The Direct Toll of the Iran War on Household Finances
While only 2% of Americans name the U.S.-Iran war as their single most important voting issue, the conflict acts as a factor for broader economic anxieties. The conflict is driving up the cost of everyday necessities like gasoline and groceries.
Data from the Chicago Council survey reveals deep public disapproval of the conflict. An overwhelming 86% of adults consider the war bad for the nation’s cost of living, while 76% of Republicans surveyed share that negative view regarding domestic expenses. Also, 72% of respondents believe the war has harmed America's international reputation and relations with allies, and 65% view it as detrimental to U.S. national security. When weighing the costs against the benefits, 68% of Americans feel the war has not been worth fighting, contrasted with 31% who view it as worthwhile—though Republicans buck that trend, with 63% supporting the conflict.
Tariffs and Domestic Pockets in Republican Strongholds
Alongside the Iran war, the administration’s sweeping tariff regime is drawing intense scrutiny from voters trying to manage household budgets. The Chicago Council survey indicates that 71% of Americans consider import tariffs bad for the broader U.S. economy, and 81% say the duties have worsened the cost of living at home. Even among Republican supporters, 62% acknowledge the negative impact on living costs.
These economic strains are manifesting in surprisingly competitive Senate races across reliably Republican farm states like Iowa and Kansas, where agricultural access to vital supplies like fertilizers has highlighted the tangible consequences of trade policies. Despite the overall public backlash, partisan divides remain stark on the issue. Roughly half of Republicans and nearly two-thirds of Republicans maintain that tariffs will ultimately benefit job creation and the overall economy.
Shifting Perceptions on Immigration, Israel, and China
In contrast to tensions in the Middle East, perceptions of relations with Beijing have softened. The Chicago Council survey found that 57% of Americans believe the United States should seek cooperative relations with China rather than trying to limit its growth, a significant rise from 40% in 2024. As voters prepare to cast their ballots on November 3, these interwoven global pressures will test whether economic dissatisfaction driven by foreign entanglements can fundamentally reshape a midterm election.
