First Minister John Swinney is insisting that “stars are aligning” for Scottish independence as the Scottish National Party gathers for its annual conference in Aberdeen. Speaking ahead of his keynote address, Swinney pointed to a recent Cardiff summit where nationalist leaders from Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland signed a non-binding agreement declaring that no Westminster government has the right to “block democracy”.
The Electoral Reality and The Pro-Independence Majority
Swinney enters the Aberdeen conference carrying the weight of a mixed electoral landscape. Although Holyrood saw the SNP win May’s Scottish Parliament election to claim a fifth straight term in power, the party missed out on securing the outright majority that Swinney had established as his goal for compelling a fresh referendum despite Westminster’s resistance.
That shortfall has left elements of the party grappling with internal friction. Veteran nationalist Alex Neil told the Daily Record that ordinary members are experiencing “utter depression” over the current strategy, arguing that senior figures lack a clear mechanism to advance the constitutional agenda.
Despite failing to secure a single-party majority, Swinney has pivoted his argument to lean on the broader legislative landscape. He argues that combining the “pro-independence majority” with Green MSPs provides a sufficient basis for the UK Government to greenlight another referendum. “The wind is in the sails of the SNP and the Yes movement,” Swinney stated, highlighting that independence momentum is building across the islands.
Flynn Issues Direct Challenge to Westminster
The conference also featured a sharp escalation in rhetoric from Economy, Tourism and Transport Secretary Stephen Flynn. Flynn used his opening remarks to directly challenge Andy Burnham to offer voters a “constitutional choice” between SNP ambition and what he termed a narrow Westminster vision.
“If he believes the United Kingdom status quo is worth saving – then bring it on, and let the people of Scotland decide,” Flynn told delegates in Aberdeen. Flynn further claimed that Burnham’s tenure in Downing Street is intrinsically linked to his ability to keep the union intact, noting that Keir Starmer stepped down as prime minister following poor Labour results in May.
Public Opinion and Unionist Pushback
Public polling illustrates a deeply divided electorate. A Survation poll commissioned by the SNP indicated 52% support for independence, whereas a YouGov study recorded 53% backing No, and a More in Common survey placed support for remaining in the UK at 52%.
Furthermore, polling underscores a significant gap between constitutional politics and voter priorities. YouGov found that only 17% of Scots view independence as a top issue facing the country, with cost-of-living concerns ranking significantly higher. A separate Survation poll for Scotland in Union showed 68% of respondents prioritizing cost of living in their top three priorities for the Scottish Government, against 11% for another referendum.
Unionist figures seized on these numbers to criticize the party’s focus. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay branded Swinney a “broken record,” stating that Scots want to see politicians lower bills and repair public services rather than pursue constitutional division.
