Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index Drops 1.5% Week-on-Week

The Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark KSE-100 index declined 2,610 points, or 1.5% week-on-week, closing at 168,155 on Friday, October 02, 2026. According to Eurasia Review, renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict and elevated global energy prices weighed on investor sentiment throughout the trading week.

The Bottom Line

• The KSE-100 index lost 2,610 points over the week ended October 2, 2026, settling at 168,155 amid geopolitical pressures.
• September 2026 inflation eased to 10.3%, down from 11.2% in August, driven by disinflationary food prices.
• An IMF mission commenced formal policy talks in Islamabad for the fourth EFF review and third RSF review, targeting $1.2 billion in combined disbursements.

Geopolitical Pressures and Oil Market Volatility

As Business Recorder reported, a volatile trading session saw the benchmark index drop nearly 500 points on Friday alone. Selling pressure in early trade dragged the market to an intraday low of 167,685.42 before a brief recovery failed near the close. Oil prices remained elevated for most of the week, touching US$105.3 per barrel due to supply chain concerns and China’s suspension of oil product exports.

Brent crude later declined to US$99.5 per barrel in the concluding phase of the week. This drop followed growing pressure from the United States on Europe to release diesel stocks, alongside reports that France proposed releasing 50 million barrels of diesel from Europe and 50 million barrels of crude oil across International Energy Agency members, as Dawn noted.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Fiscal Performance

The Federal Board of Revenue collected PKR 3.1 trillion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, exceeding the IMF-agreed target by PKR 13 billion. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s trade deficit for September 2026 widened by 6% year-on-year to US$3.6 billion. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported that September exports rose by double digits year-on-year to US$2.9 billion, while imports increased to US$6.5 billion.

Photo: tribune.com.pk

Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan stood at US$21.4 billion as of September 25, 2026. In domestic debt markets, the State Bank of Pakistan raised PKR 853 billion via a Treasury Bills auction, with cutoff yields increasing across all tenors. The government also raised PKR 46 billion and PKR 72 billion in fixed and variable Hybrid Sukuk auctions.

Market Participation and Sector Performance

Trading volumes contracted during the week. Business Recorder noted that volume on the all-share index decreased to 493.96 million shares on Friday, down from 548.38 million in the previous close, with traded value rising slightly to PKR 17.49 billion. Leading positive contributors to the index over the broader period included Vanaspati and Allied Industries, Synthetic and Rayon, and Modarabas. Conversely, sectors lagging the most were Power, Investment Companies, and Paper and Board.

Photo: Profit by Pakistan Today

Net institutional buying was led by Companies at US$5.2 million and Individuals at US$4.5 million. On the other side of the ledger, major net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds at US$6.1 million and Brokers at US$2.3 million. Top-performing scrips included SSOM, BML, and ATRL, while laggards featured PSEL, FHAM, and NPL.

Key Economic and Market Metrics (Week Ended October 2, 2026)

Indicator	Figure	Period / Date
KSE-100 Index Close	168,155 points	Week ended Oct 2, 2026
Weekly Index Change	-1.5% WoW (-2,610 pts)	Week ended Oct 2, 2026
September Inflation (CPI)	10.3%	September 2026
Trade Deficit	US$3.6 billion (+6% YoY)	September 2026
FBR 1QFY27 Collection	PKR 3.1 trillion	1QFY27
SBP Foreign Reserves	US$21.4 billion	As of Sept 25, 2026

Outlook and Near-Term Catalysts

AKD Securities expects the market to improve on the back of strengthening economic indicators, identifying the upcoming IMF review as a key near-term catalyst. A potential US-Iran deal could moderate international oil prices from current elevated levels, supporting broader equities. Brokerage forecasts anticipate the KSE-100 Index to reach 263,800 by the end of December 2026, with favored scrips including OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP, and SYS.

At the same time, Arif Habib Limited Deputy Head of Trading Ali Najib observed that market momentum remains fragile. As reported by The Express Tribune, Najib noted that near-term market movement will likely remain volatile and range-bound, stating: “The IMF review, geopolitical developments and oil prices will remain the key catalysts for market direction.”

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.