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Donald Trump scored another resounding victory Saturday on his path to the Republican nomination, which could be secured as soon as 10 days from now, when the big Super Tuesday vote takes place in 15 states across the country. The former president was facing Nikki Haley in South Carolina, who was not helped much by being born in a state that elected her twice as governor. A position that she held between 2011 and 2017 with notable popularity ratings.
Haley lost by 20 points, despite a campaign in which he spared no effort or money. She does not plan, however, to throw in the towel, and she clings to the 40% that supported her, more than what the polls predicted. Her argument remains the same as when she was left alone against Trump in a race that 14 candidates started: the candidate sells herself as a necessary alternative for Republicans and independents who fear a second round of the former president, a candidate who faces 91 alleged crimes in four different criminal proceedings.
Despite which, nothing and no one seems capable of stopping the advance of the battleship Trump among their own in 2024. A year in which, if nothing changes dramatically, the United States is heading towards a repeat of the duel for the White House that He faced Joe Biden in 2020. The presidential elections will be held on November 5.
1. Trump wins without breaking his hair too much…
Last Friday, Trump visited the quiet city of Rock Hill to give one of his difficult-to-explain rallies, in which his tide of disconnected words and arguments, lies and half-truths is cheered on by thousands of his faithful, who venerate him as a a messiah It was one of his few forays into South Carolina. And that was the State in which first his rival could appear stronger. It didn’t matter: he won with 60% of the votes without breaking the bank too much. The former president seems to be clear that he does not need to put in much effort. Also influencing is the fact that he spends something like half of his time sitting in the dock lately. Since his emergence into the Republican Party in 2015, a formation that has ended up being molded to his whim, he has shown that he has an enormous influence, against all odds, on at least 30% of the electorate. It remains to be seen if this unprecedented way of campaigning will work when the fight is not before a dedicated public, and Democrats and independents also have something to say. At the moment, the latest polls, polls to which, eight months before the presidential elections, it is not advisable to give more importance than necessary, give him a narrow advantage over Biden.
2. …and win in all areas
Like a tennis player who is good at all fields of play, Trump has chained four consecutive victories with ease in settings as different as the Iowa caucuses (a close vote, in a white and deeply religious Republican state, proud of its behavior unpredictable); the most temperate date of the New Hampshire primaries and the caucus/primary duo with overtones of farce held recently in Nevada. South Carolina was something else. It celebrates its primaries, “the first in the South,” with two points in its favor: they almost never fail (since 1980, they have been right for all the Republican candidates except on one occasion) and it is a place, although stainlessly Republican, more diverse than the of the other early dates of the campaign. It is therefore usually considered a more reliable laboratory of where the shots can go in the general election.
3. But Haley doesn’t throw in the towel
He had already warned last Tuesday in a press call with few precedents: Haley does not plan to “go anywhere.” She said this to anticipate a defeat in her home state, in which she went all out from town to town in rallies with small groups of voters united by their appreciation of the role she played when she was governor and by the fear of a second coming of Trump. On Saturday she again reminded that she won’t retire until at least Super Tuesday. Her critics ask her to stop making that effort, to save money and time. The most extreme Trumpism has a conspiracy theory to explain why she wants to continue: according to it, her donors, who have not yet lost patience, are paying to divide the Republican Party and ensure that Biden wins in November. More serious analysts consider that behind her decision is the commitment to take advantage of the fact that the national spotlight is pointing towards her to establish herself as an option in the 2028 elections. Also, that Haley wants to demonstrate that another Republican Party, more complete and moderate, is possible.
Haley justified herself by saying on Saturday that she is “a woman of her word.” “I am not going to throw in the towel when a majority of Americans do not agree with either Trump or Biden,” he warned, before adding that if he did not withdraw it was to avoid a “Soviet-style” election, with only one option on the ballot. in the primary elections that remain ahead.
4. The support of independents: the 40% who said no to Trump
In the exemplary speech she gave in Charleston on election night, Haley also said after learning of her defeat: “I am aware that 40% is not 50%.” She paused for the relieved laughter of her supporters, and continued: “But I’m also aware that the 40% is not a tiny group of people.” In other words, Haley not only sees herself as the only possible alternative to Trump, but also as the only one of the two who will be able to beat Biden in November. If she does not prevent it, voters will have to choose between a president with one of the lowest popularity levels in history, and the guy who maneuvered to overthrow the legitimate results of the polls in 2020 in a flight forward that led to the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The key to his speech, which at times seemed like that of a third party candidate, is that that 40% support, which came in open primaries, especially from the independent vote, It is a demonstration of the problems that await Republicans if they opt for the Trump option.
5. Dance of candidates… for vice president
As the way is being paved for Trump’s early appointment, the pools are heating up as to who could be his choice to accompany him as a vice presidential candidate on the November ballot. This weekend, it was the turn of Tim Scott, African-American senator from South Carolina, to present his credentials at home. Scott was one of 14 Republicans running for the nomination, and while they were competitors, Trump delivered the usual battery of insults and humiliations that he reserves for his opponents. However, since he abandoned the race, and swallowed all those toads, the senator has mutated into one of the biggest promoters of the idea of a return of the former president to the White House. In his favor, he plays the alleged influence that his selection could have on that African-American voter who gave victory to Biden in 2020, and who is now frustrated, according to polls, with the results of his performance. .
Other possible names for the position include JD Vance, Ohio senator and best-selling author (Hilbilly: a rural elegy), South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. The three ran in secret this Friday at the Conservative Action Political Conference (CPAC), held each year near Washington. It used to be a meeting of ideas about the future of the Republican Party, recently converted into a meeting at the summit of the most uncritical Trumpism.
6. What’s coming now
The next appointment is this coming Tuesday in Michigan, where, as announced on Saturday night, Haley has already left to campaign. Trump, for his part, promised another resounding victory, riding, he said, on the “support of the unions,” a force that should be counted on in that decisive state, but which has already publicly opted for Biden. Interest will momentarily turn in that election towards the president; It will be interesting to see to what extent his support for Israel in the Gaza war affects him in place with the country’s largest Arab community, which gave him their votes (and a good portion of the presidency) in 2020.
A week later comes Super Tuesday. On March 5, primaries are held throughout the country: 15 States decide 874 of 2,429 Republican delegates. To obtain the designation, Trump needs, barring the withdrawal of his rival, 1,215 delegates: so far, he has added 117, to Haley’s 17. It is also the date that he usually resolves the composition of the ballots of both parties. Haley has not ruled out continuing after that, but her bet for the moment is focused there, on seeing how many of those places, or, at least, with what percentages, will support her. After that, he continues the rest of the primaries, now devoid of almost all emotion, while the calendar moves forward until the next big date of the Republican campaign. It is set for mid-July, when the party convention will be held in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), in which delegates from all over the country gather to bless their chosen one to run for the White House.
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