(Reuters) – China’s draconian measures against the novel coronavirus have sparked public protests, raising concerns about the economic impact. On the 28th, the stock market and crude oil prices fell sharply. Here are the views of market participants:
Spreading “Regulatory Fatigue” and Slumping Consumption
China’s economy is on the road to reopening, but it can be tricky.
The growth outlook for the fourth quarter remains dismal given the resurgence of COVID-19 and the accompanying restrictions on movement.
The outbreak of protests reflects widespread “regulatory fatigue” from prolonged lockdowns. All these factors are expected to restrain consumption.
● The market is wary of tail risks, and the situation is fluid
The market is concerned about the tail risks, such as the difficulty of realizing a symbiotic relationship with the new coronavirus, the further spread of protests due to the rapid increase in infections, and the further deterioration of the economy due to social unrest.
The situation is very fluid. Protests can lead to positive outcomes. The scenario is that the government will come up with clearer measures than before to coexist with the novel coronavirus. In this case, it is conceivable that the transparency of the schedule will increase and the movement toward coexistence with the corona will accelerate.
China Corona Demonstration Here’s a look: There is also a fear of disorderly deregulation
The central government may soon be forced to choose between an additional lockdown or an expansion of the new coronavirus epidemic.
As things stand, there is further downside risk to our fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, which is below consensus.
The subjective probability of reopening the economy by the second quarter of next year is 30%. There is also the possibility that they will be forced to abolish regulations in a disorderly manner.