The European elections in June and the political adjustments prior to that event will put European conservatives and Christian Democrats in front of the mirror. The survival of the great coalition between popular and social democrats that has reigned for five decades in the European Parliament and which is increasingly damaged will depend on the resulting image. After the electoral result in Portugal, where the center-right alliance has won by the minimum while the populist extreme right has risen significantly, the popular family is once again faced with the dilemma of its relationship and possible alliances with the extreme right. Beyond the Portuguese case, in which the conservative forces reject a Government with the ultras from the outset, the broader focus is on the European Parliament elections in June, crucial for the EU at a complex time and which will act as a decisive thermometer in several of the large Member States. The polls also point to an increase in the vote for the kaleidoscope of ultra-conservative and populist parties. And that, as happened in Italy in 2022, where the conservatives blessed the ultra Giorgia Meloni and brought her to the Government, is pushing the European People’s Party (EPP) to elucidate what type of ultras are acceptable and what alliances would be possible.
That mental scheme has become more elastic. The EPP – as demonstrated by its manifesto approved last week at a congress in Bucharest, very tough on the immigration issue and even with certain Eurosceptic overtones – has ratified its drift further to the right and its cordon sanitaire now seems more lax. The national political constellations make a big difference, so, although the polls continue to give the EPP as the first party, the ultras are pushing and the formation that brings together the main right-wing forces wants to maintain its strength.
The Portuguese conservatives of the Democratic Alliance (AD) have assured that they will govern as a minority and will not agree with the populist ultras of Chega, who have integrated themselves into the far-right European family of Identity and Democracy (ID), which includes others such as Alternative for Germany (AfD). What happened in Portugal, where just two years ago the Socialist Party obtained an absolute majority, but a corruption scandal blew up the Government of António Costa, has shown that the process of normalization of the radical right seems very widespread, asserts Ignacio Molina, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute. The case of Lisbon also leaves the European Council, which represents the leaders of the States, with one less socialist voice, that of Costa.
Far-right or populist parties are already in national, regional or local governments throughout Europe – with exceptions such as Ireland or Greece, where they govern alone – with a floor of 10% and a ceiling of more than 40%, if consider Marine Le Pen’s National Rally or the right-wing coalition led by Brothers of Italy, Meloni’s ultra formation. “The PP is not going to ignore this reality and even more so in the elections to the European Parliament, which can be seen as second-order and in which it is easier to channel discontent,” predicts Molina.
The popular Europeans have set certain red lines. But not too rigid. Last week, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who aspires to repeat her term for another five years, cried out against “Putin’s friends”, populism and the extreme right and extreme left. And she mentioned Le Pen’s party, to which the polls give an enormous number of votes in France, or the Alternative for Germany ultras; from the European ID family, like Chega. “They want to destroy Europe,” she warned. However, her speech left a wide margin for other ultra formations, although less vociferous. After all, this more right-wing EPP shares many elements with those parties.
Desirable and uncomfortable alliances
The president of the European Popular Party, the German Manfred Weber, is openly in favor of these alliances with more radical partners, even to be able to form governments. Although as long as they are “pro-EU, pro-rule of law, pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO”, he has pointed out on numerous occasions. However, the national parties of the conservative political family have sometimes turned a blind eye to some of the points of that premise. This is the case of the Spanish PP, associated with the Europhobic ultras of Vox, with those who govern in communities and city councils and with whom, if they had gained a majority, they would not have had problems forming a Government after the general elections in July. The Spanish radicals cry out on many occasions against the “Brussels bureaucrats” and have attacked, for example, against the State of the autonomies included in the Spanish Constitution, which would not fulfill the pro-rule of law point either.
The laboratory for the model that Weber promotes has been Italy, with the Meloni Government. His party, Brothers of Italy, is part of the political family of European Reformists and Conservatives (ECR), composed mostly of anti-federalist formations – and which in some cases define themselves as “Eurorealist” -, which also includes Vox, the Polish Law and Justice ultras, but also the more moderate party of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. In fact, the EPP has been courting Fiala and Meloni for some time and some popular members would like them to leave the ultra-conservative European family to join their own, acknowledges a conservative MEP. Or that the popular ones deepened their relationship with that family. “ECR is always among the forces that play a role in the European Parliament. I hope we can work with them,” said Antonio Tajani, of Forza Italia (within the EPP), the party founded by Silvio Berlusconi, on Thursday in Bucharest.
The dilemma of EU conservatives over their identity also raises the question of what will happen to the grand coalition between the EPP and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) that has governed the EU institutions for decades, most recently with the liberals as a hinge. Will that great coalition break up? Von der Leyen, for example, although she is the favorite to repeat as head of the Community Executive, moves in a very complicated balance because she needs the governments of the Member States of all colors to propose her and then that new kaleidoscopic European Parliament that come out of the polls confirm it. Hence the elasticity of her cordon sanitaire.
The socialists have already warned the German conservative that alliances with the extreme right are a red line. “We have to guarantee the future of the EU and maintain alliances with pro-European political forces,” says Iratxe García, president of the S&D group in the European Parliament. “We are concerned about the drift of the EPP,” says García, who has accused the leader of the European conservatives of “whitewashing and normalizing” the extreme right, leaving loopholes for pacts with ultra parties.
Ignacio Molina believes that what the EPP is going to do is precisely to avoid this dilemma regarding its relations. “They can navigate the idea of the grand coalition, or at least pretend not to break it. They have almost no choice, since the prime ministers of five relevant Member States [Alemania, Francia, España, Dinamarca y Bélgica] They are not from the EPP and would not support a Von der Leyen who makes a pact with the extreme right. However, later they can build a legislative coalition for specific policies in which they could agree more to the right,” says the expert. And he adds: “If that great coalition were definitively broken [entre el PPE y el S&D]the EU and its legitimacy would suffer.”
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