Numerous international sanctions, closure of borders linked to Covid-19, food shortages, talks with the United States at a standstill… The failures of leader Kim Jong Un are numerous, after ten years in power. So many factors that could explain the five weapons tests in the last three weeks by North Korea.
“Missiles and the development of weapons of war are probably the only successes that Kim Jong Un can claim,” said Ahn Chan-il, a defector turned researcher.
“He doesn’t have much to offer the North Korean people at the moment.”
Trials before the military parade in tribute to Kim Jong II and Kim II Sung?
The country is gearing up to celebrate the 80th birthday of Kim’s father, late leader Kim Jong Il, in February and then the 110th birthday of Kim Il Sung, the country’s founding leader, in April. In North Korea’s dynastic system, marking ancestor birthdays with the appropriate “grandeur” is politically crucial, says Cheong Seong-chang of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.
These important dates are an opportunity for the regime to organize a military parade intended to show off the new weapons that the country is testing upstream, allowing it both to demonstrate their military capacity and to add to the general festivities, adds Cheong Seong-chang.
Shots for good relations with China and South Korea?
Pyongyang earlier this month restarted cross-border trade with neighboring China. And the country’s recent decision to accept Chinese aid, a first since the start of the pandemic, may have motivated the recent show of military force “to avoid appearing weak”, believes Leif-Eric Easley, professor at the Ewha University in Seoul.
Regarding relations with its only ally, South Korea: “As the North Koreans have missiles to test to improve their military capabilities and send signals before the South Korean presidential election on March 9 , they should probably do it before the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics on February 4,” adds Easley.
Diplomatic relations at half mast with the United States
North Korea has not tested intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons since 2017, when the country began a series of high-level diplomatic meetings, including with then-US President Donald Trump.
But last week the regime said it was considering resuming those temporarily suspended activities, in response to new US sanctions imposed after initial trials earlier this year. The last time North Korea tested so many weapons in a month was in 2019, after high-profile talks between Pyongyang and the United States broke down. However, Easley said it is unlikely that the recent series of shootings was directly aimed at inducing the administration of US President Joe Biden to enter into talks.