Pakistan launched overnight airstrikes targeting militant positions inside Afghanistan on Thursday, leaving a contested toll.
Clashing Casualties and Border Airstrikes
The Thursday night raids ignited an immediate dispute over the human cost of the operation. The Taliban, the Islamic fundamentalist nationalist movement that controls Afghanistan, reported that the strikes killed between nine and 10 civilians, including women and children. Meanwhile, Pakistan claims the strike killed 22 militants and destroyed weapons and ammunition depots.
These early October attacks represent the latest flashpoint in a conflict between the two countries that reignited in mid-September following months of comparative calm. The renewed hostilities trace back to a series of attacks on Pakistani security forces. On September 18, an attack on a police compound in the northwestern city of Kohat killed 31 people and left more than 100 others injured. A splinter group belonging to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, claimed responsibility for the Kohat strike in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
In response, Pakistan accused Afghanistan of providing the TTP with a safe haven. Afghanistan denied the accusation, but the exchange triggered cross-border clashes and subsequent Pakistani airstrikes.
The Tangled Nexus Between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban
While the TTP fights the Pakistani state, it maintains ideological and personnel ties with the Afghan Taliban. Many TTP fighters sided with the Taliban during that country’s long-running insurgency against international and U.S. troops. The return of the Taliban to power in 2021 granted the TTP expanded room and leverage.
Conrad Schetter, director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, explained that personal networks make it extremely difficult for the Afghan Taliban to break away from the TTP. However, experts emphasize that shared history does not equal direct influence.
Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a think tank working between Kabul and Berlin, noted that the Taliban are not prepared to take orders from Islamabad and will not let anyone outside interfere. Consequently, the Pakistani policy of supporting the Taliban to gain influence in Afghanistan has not worked, and Pakistan now increasingly views its north-western neighbor as a liability.
Historical Borders and Geopolitical Pressures
The modern military friction compounds an enduring historical dispute over the Durand Line. Drawn in 1893 by a British diplomat and an Afghan emir, the demarcation established spheres of influence between British India and Afghanistan. Today, the border divides an area on both sides, homeland to Pashtuns, who make up the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and the second largest in Pakistan.
Because the border divides ethnic groups, many Pashtuns refuse to accept the border that the Durand Line created. This identity dispute overlaps with Pakistan’s long-running rivalry with India. An analysis by the British think tank Chatham House observed that while Islamabad once viewed Afghanistan as a source of “strategic depth” in its rivalry with India, India has also strengthened its ties to the Taliban.
Despite these vulnerabilities, Pakistan retains power over Afghanistan. As a landlocked country, Afghanistan relies on trade routes through neighboring countries, and Pakistan in particular. Pakistan can use border closures and trade restrictions to exert pressure, even as the Taliban regime is trying to reduce dependence on Pakistan and find new economic and political partners.
Diplomatic efforts, including Taliban-mediated ceasefires and direct bilateral talks, have failed to resolve the crucial question of how to prevent attacks on Pakistan from Afghan territory.
