In late May 2023, Sudanese military forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) clashed in Khartoum for the first time since a fragile ceasefire took effect in April, according to multiple local news outlets and satellite imagery analyzed by the Conflict Monitor Project. The violence displaced over 150,000 people within a week, with reports of looting and targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure, including a hospital in the capital’s Omdurman district. The fighting coincided with a sharp rise in food prices, as the World Bank confirmed a 40% year-on-year inflation rate in May, driven by currency devaluation and disrupted grain imports.
Sudan’s strategic position at the crossroads of the Horn of Africa and the Sahel has long made it susceptible to regional instability. The ongoing war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which has displaced over 2 million people, has exacerbated cross-border tensions, with the Sudanese government accusing Ethiopian forces of supporting rebel groups in the border state of South Kordofan. Meanwhile, the collapse of the Libyan state has led to an influx of arms and mercenaries into Sudan, according to a June 2023 report by the United Nations Panel of Experts on Somalia and Eritrea.
The country’s political fragmentation further compounds its vulnerability. Following the 2021 coup, the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), a key opposition group, has seen its influence erode as the military continues to consolidate power. In late May, the SPA issued a statement condemning the violence, calling for international intervention to prevent “a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe.” However, the group’s capacity to mobilize protests has diminished, with several leaders detained in recent months, per human rights organization Amnesty International.
Diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region have stalled. The African Union’s special envoy for Sudan, former South African president Thabo Mbeki, announced in late May that a planned summit to address the crisis had been postponed indefinitely, citing “unresolved differences” among regional stakeholders. Meanwhile, the United States and the European Union have maintained sanctions on Sudan’s military leadership, though these measures have not triggered significant policy shifts, according to a June 2023 analysis by the International Crisis Group.
Sudan’s economic collapse has left 70% of the population in poverty, according to the International Monetary Fund, with the health sector particularly affected. A 2023 survey by the Sudanese Medical Association found that 60% of hospitals lack basic supplies, and 30% of medical staff have left the country since 2020. The World Health Organization has deployed emergency teams to Khartoum, but aid distribution remains hampered by insecurity and bureaucratic delays, as noted in a June 2023 report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The conflict has also strained Sudan’s relations with neighboring states. In early June, South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, accused Sudan of harboring rebels from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), a claim Sudan’s Foreign Ministry denied. Earlier this month, Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, called for a “regional dialogue” to address security concerns, but no formal mechanism has been established, according to the African Union’s latest bulletin.
As the humanitarian situation deteriorates, the United Nations has warned that Sudan could face a “catastrophic” food shortage by the end of 2023, with 12 million people requiring urgent aid. The UN Security Council is set to meet in late June to discuss a potential sanctions review, but no consensus has emerged on lifting restrictions on humanitarian shipments, which remain blocked by Sudan’s military authorities.
