Voters in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao head to the polls on Monday for the territory’s first parliamentary election since its establishment in 2018. The vote formally marks the end of the transition period under the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, an interim regional government appointed in 2019 following decades of armed conflict and negotiations between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the government of the Philippines.
Centuries of Resistance on Mindanao
BARMM is located on Mindanao, the second-largest island in the Philippine Archipelago, and covers the territories inhabited by the Moro people, a native Muslim-majority group. For centuries, the Moro practiced self-governance in independent states and resisted Spanish colonialism. Following the independence of the Philippines in 1946, they continued their push for self-determination.
In 1989, Manila created the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao to provide devolved rights to the Moro population. However, ARMM largely failed to address local grievances and demands due to weak structural energy, offering limited political and financial autonomy that did not improve socioeconomic conditions in the area. Consequently, the MILF maintained its armed struggle.
From the Failed ARMM Experiment to BARMM
A turning point arrived in 2012 when President Benigno Aquino III recognized the ARMM as a failed experiment. Under his administration, the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro was signed, laying the groundwork for a new political entity. Six years later, under President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, the Organic Law for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao was promulgated, granting the region higher fiscal autonomy, a regional government, a parliament, and a justice system.
The subsequent Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro outlined the transition mechanism from ARMM to BARMM and established the MILF-dominated Bangsamoro Transition Authority.
Internal Rifts and High-Stakes Factionalism
The upcoming vote coincides with heightened tensions inside BARMM and internal divisions within the MILF. Two distinct camps have emerged within the movement: one loyal to MILF Chair Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, and another supporting Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua.
Last month, Macacua joined the newly formed Bangsamoro Federalist Party, which is competing in the elections against the MILF’s political wing, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party. Shortly after this move, Macacua’s convoy was attacked, though he survived unscathed. In early September, Macacua and 40 commanders were dismissed from the MILF’s military wing for alleged insubordination, raising public anxiety regarding potential post-election unrest.
Structural Hurdles and the Test of Ethical Governance
Beyond internal factionalism, the election faces long-standing structural challenges. In previous regional votes, vote-buying was widespread, election-related violence was rampant, and electoral fraud and manipulation were pervasive. If these practices recur on a large scale, the final outcome may not accurately reflect the true will of the Bangsamoro people or indicate public satisfaction with the transitional authority.
The MILF has publicly presented itself as a champion of ethical governance, a label that faces a severe test as candidates navigate widespread vote-buying, electoral manipulation, and internal rivalries.
